UnitedHealth UNH - Institutional Exit or Long-Term Opportunity?

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Key Insights
UNH has witnessed a historic -24% monthly drop, breaking multiple key long-term supports on extreme volume — often a sign of institutional distribution or capitulation.

Bearish Outlook (Primary Bias):

  • Current price is testing the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement ($322 - $287), a critical make-or-break zone.
  • A monthly close below $287 will likely trigger the next leg lower toward $250 and possibly the $200 psychological handle.
  • The bearish momentum remains dominant, confirmed by RSI deep in bear territory and MACD accelerating down.


Invalidation Levels (For Shorts):

  • Aggressive short invalidation: Weekly close above $395.33.
  • Full bearish invalidation (shift to bullish bias): Monthly close above $447.21.


Bullish Opportunity Zones:

Watch for strong bullish reversal at the $287 - $249 support zone, aligning with 0.382 Fib and historical demand.
If $200 - $160 is ever reached, it becomes a high-probability accumulation zone for long-term investors.

Probability:
$395 - $447 Strong Short Bias , Look for retests & rejection
$322 - $287 Neutral to Bearish (watch reaction), Currently testing key support
$249 - $200 High-Probability Long Setup, Look for confirmation reversal
Above $447.21 Bullish Bias Resumes, Invalidate bears, shift to longs

Conclusion:
UNH is at a critical long-term support crossroad.
Patience is key—traders should avoid chasing the lows and wait for higher-probability setups at key levels.

Let the chart guide the trade

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