Now this is something interesting. The BOND market seems to accept the slowing down in Fed Rate Hikes by 25bps.
What was previously accepted as per 09/2022 dot plot was 75bps in 11/2022 + 50bps in 12/2022 for a total of 125bps to bring the FRR to 4.50% is now cut SHORT by 25bps. Instead of 4.50%, we may now expect 4.25% by end 2022, which is where it is now hovering.
If the dot plot can get superseded within a month, anything can happen.
Even the FFR Futures seems to be expecting LOWER FFR by the day.
investing.com/rates-bonds/30-day-fed-funds-futures
So the question that remain is ONE, which takes precedent, INFLATION or GDP?
By the way, yesterday, the 10y/03m just got inverted. It seems that a PIVOT may be near. Lets also see if US02Y will FALL below 50MA. This is also another indication a PIVOT may happen.
Yesterday's GDP =2.60% was good news for Dollar but just that it was made up of EXPORT which is clearly not sustainable/real.
Trading the EURUSD just hot harder!!!
Good luck.
P/S : As always, do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
What was previously accepted as per 09/2022 dot plot was 75bps in 11/2022 + 50bps in 12/2022 for a total of 125bps to bring the FRR to 4.50% is now cut SHORT by 25bps. Instead of 4.50%, we may now expect 4.25% by end 2022, which is where it is now hovering.
If the dot plot can get superseded within a month, anything can happen.
Even the FFR Futures seems to be expecting LOWER FFR by the day.
investing.com/rates-bonds/30-day-fed-funds-futures
So the question that remain is ONE, which takes precedent, INFLATION or GDP?
By the way, yesterday, the 10y/03m just got inverted. It seems that a PIVOT may be near. Lets also see if US02Y will FALL below 50MA. This is also another indication a PIVOT may happen.
Yesterday's GDP =2.60% was good news for Dollar but just that it was made up of EXPORT which is clearly not sustainable/real.
Trading the EURUSD just hot harder!!!
Good luck.
P/S : As always, do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.