There's still an inversion between 1 and 2 yr bonds, which means the market still has a rate cut priced in for next year. On top of that, it looks to me like we're headed over 5% this year, so even the 1 yr needs to go up.
What's interesting is that the rate inversion started at the same time as the market rally, last Oct.
I dunno if the market fixes some of that Tuesday or just gets all pumptarded because inflation only went up .5% m/m like Germany did, lol. .5% m/m extrapolates to 6% yearly, and it took then a few hours to figure it out, lol. Remember the target inflation is 2%, and it;s gonna require more than one more rate hike to drop it down.
Pretty good chance Tuesday winds up being a pump and dump like Europe, but I'm gonna carry a small position in TLT and BITO puts. Decide against doing a straddle.
What's interesting is that the rate inversion started at the same time as the market rally, last Oct.
I dunno if the market fixes some of that Tuesday or just gets all pumptarded because inflation only went up .5% m/m like Germany did, lol. .5% m/m extrapolates to 6% yearly, and it took then a few hours to figure it out, lol. Remember the target inflation is 2%, and it;s gonna require more than one more rate hike to drop it down.
Pretty good chance Tuesday winds up being a pump and dump like Europe, but I'm gonna carry a small position in TLT and BITO puts. Decide against doing a straddle.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.