After the classic 4th of July rally, I stepped in on the short side of Nasdaq, targeting 22,000 and 21,400 zones. The market structure shows exhaustion, and with the cloud retest failing to hold new highs, I positioned accordingly.
Technical:
• Price stalled at prior expansion highs with tight compression near 23,000.
• Daily FibCloud offered resistance confirmation.
• Bearish risk-reward skew forms after extended rally and thin retraces.
• Volume divergence spotted.
Fundamentals:
Multiple overlapping uncertainties:
• Trump confirmed tariffs will take effect on August 1, threatening a 10% surcharge on BRICS-aligned nations.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent anticipates several trade deal announcements within 48h—but stresses quality over quantity.
• Bank of America maintains its base case of 0 rate cuts in 2025, citing strong economic data and sticky inflation risks.
The combination of tariff escalation, hawkish monetary expectations, and global trade friction creates a perfect backdrop for volatility and correction—especially in overextended tech indices like the Nasdaq.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Technical:
• Price stalled at prior expansion highs with tight compression near 23,000.
• Daily FibCloud offered resistance confirmation.
• Bearish risk-reward skew forms after extended rally and thin retraces.
• Volume divergence spotted.
Fundamentals:
Multiple overlapping uncertainties:
• Trump confirmed tariffs will take effect on August 1, threatening a 10% surcharge on BRICS-aligned nations.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent anticipates several trade deal announcements within 48h—but stresses quality over quantity.
• Bank of America maintains its base case of 0 rate cuts in 2025, citing strong economic data and sticky inflation risks.
The combination of tariff escalation, hawkish monetary expectations, and global trade friction creates a perfect backdrop for volatility and correction—especially in overextended tech indices like the Nasdaq.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.