US Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook for the week July 28-Aug 1 (updated daily)
Overnight
Overnight, U.S. Treasury yields reversed their upward trend and traded lower as investors awaited key developments from the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting and ongoing U.S.-China trade talks. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield fell to 4.35%, a decrease of 2 basis points, while the 30-year bond yield dropped to 4.92%, down 3 basis points. This shift followed a period of elevated yields driven by concerns over potential inflationary pressures from proposed U.S. tariffs. Market participants were particularly focused on the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, with futures markets indicating a likely rate cut in September. Additionally, trade negotiations in London between U.S. and Chinese officials added uncertainty, as economists anticipated that tariff-related disruptions could push the Consumer Price Index higher, potentially impacting future Fed decisions. The market’s cautious mood was reflected in a light economic data calendar, leaving room for yields to react to trade and Fed-related headlines.
Economic Release for the Week myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Weekly Bias
As expected last Monday we were anticipated that 4.395% will be mitigated. Basing on how the market moved last week and the week closing through below previous week low I am anticipating a continuation to target 4.33% to 4.322%. Bear in mind though that this week’s FOMC meeting could generate a significant volatility and become a catalyst to our projection.
Daily Bias UST 10y July 29
Overnight
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note remained steady at approximately 4.39% for the third consecutive session as investors awaited a critical week of monetary policy and economic data. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates at its Wednesday meeting, with markets keenly observing for indications of a potential rate cut in September. Investors are also focused on the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures report, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, which may reveal the impact of tariffs on price dynamics. Additionally, a series of labor market data releases, culminating in Friday’s closely watched monthly jobs report, will draw significant attention. On the trade front, a recent US-EU agreement has reduced tariffs on most EU exports to 15%, down from a previously threatened 30%, alleviating some trade-related uncertainty.
Economic Release July 29 myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Daily Bias
Basing on price action I am anticipating market to test the previous day high of 4.42%. Market is also waiting for the start of the FED meeting which could contribute to low volatility for the meantime. Although market is expecting no move but any deviation from policy expectation could create high volatility.
Daily Bias UST 10y July 30
Overnight
Overnight, U.S. stock markets experienced a downturn, with major indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite declining ahead of anticipated Federal Reserve announcements. The drop was primarily driven by uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate decisions and ongoing trade tensions, particularly following President Trump’s recent tariff policies. Concurrently, U.S. Treasury yields, including the 10-year note, fell to 4.28% from 4.35% the previous day, reflecting investor caution and a shift toward safer assets amid economic concerns. This market reaction underscores heightened sensitivity to Federal Reserve actions and the broader implications of trade disruptions on global economic growth.
Economic release July 30 myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Daily Bias
Cautious positioning kicks in and all our anticipated targets were all missed instead market moved to our weekly bias of 4.33% and old week low of 4.322%. This is expected on an FOMC week due on Thursday morning. With how the market moved yesterday I am anticipating a further test on the low side of previous day range but don’t discount any volatility with GDP due to be released later tonight . tradingview.com/chart/kiSyMSAj/?symbol=SP:SPX
Daily Bias UST 10y July 31
Overnight
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to 4.35% on Wednesday, rebounding from a near-one-month low of 4.32%, as markets evaluated the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates and its neutral stance on future policy moves. Strong US GDP growth of 3% in Q2, exceeding market expectations, was tempered by distortions from net foreign demand due to import front-loading. Volatile trade data reflected new tariffs imposed by President Trump on India and Brazil. The Treasury announced stable issuance volumes for notes and bonds but plans to double long-end nominal buybacks and increase TIPS buybacks, aligning with efforts to manage long-end yields, as outlined by Secretary Bessent.
Economic Release July 31 myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Daily Bias
Prior to FOMC decision the yield moved higher (price lower) and retraced to the 50% range of the prior day’s range (Tuesday). Today I would like to wait if the market would continue the bullish move of Tuesday. We are on an inside candle pattern so I would like more confirmation for the next move.
**Disclaimer:**
The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Overnight
Overnight, U.S. Treasury yields reversed their upward trend and traded lower as investors awaited key developments from the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting and ongoing U.S.-China trade talks. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield fell to 4.35%, a decrease of 2 basis points, while the 30-year bond yield dropped to 4.92%, down 3 basis points. This shift followed a period of elevated yields driven by concerns over potential inflationary pressures from proposed U.S. tariffs. Market participants were particularly focused on the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, with futures markets indicating a likely rate cut in September. Additionally, trade negotiations in London between U.S. and Chinese officials added uncertainty, as economists anticipated that tariff-related disruptions could push the Consumer Price Index higher, potentially impacting future Fed decisions. The market’s cautious mood was reflected in a light economic data calendar, leaving room for yields to react to trade and Fed-related headlines.
Economic Release for the Week myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Weekly Bias
As expected last Monday we were anticipated that 4.395% will be mitigated. Basing on how the market moved last week and the week closing through below previous week low I am anticipating a continuation to target 4.33% to 4.322%. Bear in mind though that this week’s FOMC meeting could generate a significant volatility and become a catalyst to our projection.
Daily Bias UST 10y July 29
Overnight
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note remained steady at approximately 4.39% for the third consecutive session as investors awaited a critical week of monetary policy and economic data. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates at its Wednesday meeting, with markets keenly observing for indications of a potential rate cut in September. Investors are also focused on the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures report, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, which may reveal the impact of tariffs on price dynamics. Additionally, a series of labor market data releases, culminating in Friday’s closely watched monthly jobs report, will draw significant attention. On the trade front, a recent US-EU agreement has reduced tariffs on most EU exports to 15%, down from a previously threatened 30%, alleviating some trade-related uncertainty.
Economic Release July 29 myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Daily Bias
Basing on price action I am anticipating market to test the previous day high of 4.42%. Market is also waiting for the start of the FED meeting which could contribute to low volatility for the meantime. Although market is expecting no move but any deviation from policy expectation could create high volatility.
Daily Bias UST 10y July 30
Overnight
Overnight, U.S. stock markets experienced a downturn, with major indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite declining ahead of anticipated Federal Reserve announcements. The drop was primarily driven by uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate decisions and ongoing trade tensions, particularly following President Trump’s recent tariff policies. Concurrently, U.S. Treasury yields, including the 10-year note, fell to 4.28% from 4.35% the previous day, reflecting investor caution and a shift toward safer assets amid economic concerns. This market reaction underscores heightened sensitivity to Federal Reserve actions and the broader implications of trade disruptions on global economic growth.
Economic release July 30 myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Daily Bias
Cautious positioning kicks in and all our anticipated targets were all missed instead market moved to our weekly bias of 4.33% and old week low of 4.322%. This is expected on an FOMC week due on Thursday morning. With how the market moved yesterday I am anticipating a further test on the low side of previous day range but don’t discount any volatility with GDP due to be released later tonight . tradingview.com/chart/kiSyMSAj/?symbol=SP:SPX
Daily Bias UST 10y July 31
Overnight
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to 4.35% on Wednesday, rebounding from a near-one-month low of 4.32%, as markets evaluated the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates and its neutral stance on future policy moves. Strong US GDP growth of 3% in Q2, exceeding market expectations, was tempered by distortions from net foreign demand due to import front-loading. Volatile trade data reflected new tariffs imposed by President Trump on India and Brazil. The Treasury announced stable issuance volumes for notes and bonds but plans to double long-end nominal buybacks and increase TIPS buybacks, aligning with efforts to manage long-end yields, as outlined by Secretary Bessent.
Economic Release July 31 myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Daily Bias
Prior to FOMC decision the yield moved higher (price lower) and retraced to the 50% range of the prior day’s range (Tuesday). Today I would like to wait if the market would continue the bullish move of Tuesday. We are on an inside candle pattern so I would like more confirmation for the next move.
**Disclaimer:**
The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Note
Daily Bias UST 10y Aug 1Overnight
On Thursday, the US 10-year Treasury yield declined to 4.36% as investors grappled with mixed economic signals from inflation and growth data. The core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, increased by 0.3% in June and 2.8% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures, while consumer spending showed minimal growth, suggesting economic strain. Investors are now focused on the upcoming July jobs report for further insight into the Federal Reserve’s next moves. Meanwhile, President Trump intensified criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates and escalated trade tensions by announcing 15% tariffs on South Korean imports and 25% on Indian imports, with potential for further actions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to meet with Trump to discuss extending the China tariff truce, aiming for a possible agreement.
Economic Release Aug 1 myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Daily Bias
Volatility is not yet over with Payroll numbers and Unemployment rate due later today. I will abstain from giving bias as volatility could hit both sides of the range with this economic releases. Key levels to watch are Prev Day High 4.38%, Daily Old High 4.42 & 4.44%, Prev Week Low 4.33% and Daily Old Swing Low 4.316%
**Disclaimer:**
The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.