US 10Y TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK JUN 16-20 (UPDATED DAILY)
Overnight
U.S. Treasuries ended the week lower as rising energy prices sparked inflation concerns, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts. Crude oil surged $5.12 (7.5%) to $73.16/bbl, up 13.3% weekly, following Israel’s strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran’s retaliatory missile attack, raising fears of further escalation. Treasuries began the day higher but steadily declined, pushing the 10-year yield above its 50-day moving average (4.374%), though it dropped nine basis points for the week.
Economic Releases for the Week
myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Technical Outlook
Monthly
We continue to trade within the previous month’s range with no clear direction. Range 4.63% -4.12%
Weekly
Technically hard to read were the market would go with all the geopolitical noise. Inflation was the concern reason why the yield went higher after the Israel-Iran issue due to surge in oil. This week, we might be able to see the direction after the FOMC on Thursday. So meantime I will hold my projection.
Daily
Same as weekly outlook. Will watch FOMC first.
Overnight
U.S. Treasuries ended the week lower as rising energy prices sparked inflation concerns, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts. Crude oil surged $5.12 (7.5%) to $73.16/bbl, up 13.3% weekly, following Israel’s strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran’s retaliatory missile attack, raising fears of further escalation. Treasuries began the day higher but steadily declined, pushing the 10-year yield above its 50-day moving average (4.374%), though it dropped nine basis points for the week.
Economic Releases for the Week
myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Technical Outlook
Monthly
We continue to trade within the previous month’s range with no clear direction. Range 4.63% -4.12%
Weekly
Technically hard to read were the market would go with all the geopolitical noise. Inflation was the concern reason why the yield went higher after the Israel-Iran issue due to surge in oil. This week, we might be able to see the direction after the FOMC on Thursday. So meantime I will hold my projection.
Daily
Same as weekly outlook. Will watch FOMC first.
Note
US 10Y TREASURY BIAS June 17, 2025Overnight
US Bonds Extend Slide as Fed Seen on Hold Amid Oil Spike
Summary by Bloomberg AI
US Treasuries fell amid bets that elevated oil prices will spur Federal Reserve policymakers to signal patience toward further interest-rate cuts when they meet this week.
Oil prices remain significantly above levels before Israel’s attacks began late last week, stoking worries around the risk of persistently higher inflation.
The bond market awaits the start of a two-day Fed meeting on Tuesday, with officials widely projected to keep rates steady, but set to release a quarterly update of economic and interest-rate projections.
Economic Release for today {myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar}
Daily Bias
Base on the candle structure from Friday to Monday the price is showing higher lows (HL) and higher high (HL) and Monday’s close is higher than Friday’s high which tells me that the price is bearish. So for today my bias will be that yield will possibly reach for 4.46%. I will be fully bearish if yield breaks and closed through previous week high of 4.52%.
Please bear in mind that FOMC will start its close door meeting and decision on Thursday morning so I will be more cautious in anticipating where yield would go as this event could trigger volatility. Weekly and Monthly I’m still directionless but on weekly it is still supporting last week’s 50% fib range (blue line) range.
MONTHLY/WEEKLY/DAILY Chart
[URL: Economic Calendar | Myfxbook]
[URL: TVC:US10Y Chart Image by Junmadayag]
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.