US 10-Year Treasury Yield Reaction to July 15, 2025 Economic Data
Key Economic Data (July 15, 2025)
Indicator Actual Forecast Previous
Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
CPI m/m 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
CPI y/y 2.7% 2.6% 2.4%
Empire State Mfg Index 5.5 — -8.3
Market Reaction: US 10-Year Treasury Yield
Yield Movement:
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose sharply to 4.495% on July 15, 2025, up from 4.43% the previous market day—a gain of 7 basis points.
Immediate Cause:
This jump occurred as the inflation data, while showing softer core CPI than forecast, delivered a higher-than-expected annual CPI (2.7% y/y vs. 2.6% forecast) and robust CPI m/m. Additionally, the Empire State Manufacturing Index rebounded strongly, further supporting concerns over persistent price pressures and economic momentum.
Market Interpretation:
Investors increasingly scaled back expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, causing a sell-off in Treasuries and pushing yields higher.
Persistent inflation—especially with annual CPI running above consensus—suggests the Fed may need to keep rates higher for longer, amplifying bond market volatility.
The improved manufacturing sentiment also fueled the belief that the US economy remains resilient, reinforcing the hawkish read on interest rates.
Summary Table: US 10-Year Yield
Date Yield Daily Change
July 15, 2025 4.495% +0.07%
July 14, 2025 4.43% —
Key Takeaways
US10Y jumped by 7 bps to its highest level in five weeks after the mixed inflation report and strong manufacturing data.
Investor sentiment shifted toward fewer and later Fed rate cuts as inflation proved more stubborn than forecast.
The yield reaction underscores ongoing sensitivity to inflation surprises and economic resilience in 2025.
The bond market’s move highlights that even minor upsets to the inflation outlook can quickly ripple through rates, especially when compounded by positive growth signals.
#US10Y
Key Economic Data (July 15, 2025)
Indicator Actual Forecast Previous
Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
CPI m/m 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
CPI y/y 2.7% 2.6% 2.4%
Empire State Mfg Index 5.5 — -8.3
Market Reaction: US 10-Year Treasury Yield
Yield Movement:
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose sharply to 4.495% on July 15, 2025, up from 4.43% the previous market day—a gain of 7 basis points.
Immediate Cause:
This jump occurred as the inflation data, while showing softer core CPI than forecast, delivered a higher-than-expected annual CPI (2.7% y/y vs. 2.6% forecast) and robust CPI m/m. Additionally, the Empire State Manufacturing Index rebounded strongly, further supporting concerns over persistent price pressures and economic momentum.
Market Interpretation:
Investors increasingly scaled back expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, causing a sell-off in Treasuries and pushing yields higher.
Persistent inflation—especially with annual CPI running above consensus—suggests the Fed may need to keep rates higher for longer, amplifying bond market volatility.
The improved manufacturing sentiment also fueled the belief that the US economy remains resilient, reinforcing the hawkish read on interest rates.
Summary Table: US 10-Year Yield
Date Yield Daily Change
July 15, 2025 4.495% +0.07%
July 14, 2025 4.43% —
Key Takeaways
US10Y jumped by 7 bps to its highest level in five weeks after the mixed inflation report and strong manufacturing data.
Investor sentiment shifted toward fewer and later Fed rate cuts as inflation proved more stubborn than forecast.
The yield reaction underscores ongoing sensitivity to inflation surprises and economic resilience in 2025.
The bond market’s move highlights that even minor upsets to the inflation outlook can quickly ripple through rates, especially when compounded by positive growth signals.
#US10Y
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.