Closing Price: 6447.8 (16th Aug 2025, 12:50 PM UTC+4)
Analysis Methods: Japanese Candlesticks, Harmonic Patterns (ABCD, M/W), Elliott Wave, Wyckoff, Gann Theory (Time/Square of 9/Angles), Ichimoku, RSI, Bollinger Bands, VWAP, Moving Averages (MA/EMA/SMA/WMA).
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1. Long-Term Trend (Weekly/Monthly)
Elliott Wave:
Gann Price Forecasting:
[
b]Ichimoku (Monthly):
Moving Averages:
2. Medium-Term Swing (4H/Daily)
Harmonic Patterns:
Bearish ABCD on Daily:
Wyckoff Phase:
Gann Theory:
Indicators:
RSI(14) + Bollinger Bands (Daily):
Swing Trade Setup:
Short near 6470–6490 → Target 6400. Stop-loss: 6520.
Long near 6350 → Target 6500. Stop-loss: 6300.
3. Intraday Outlook (5M–4H)
Key Levels:
Indicators:
Ichimoku (1H):
RSI + Bollinger Bands (1H):
VWAP + MAs:
Candlestick Patterns:
Gann Intraday Squaring:
Summary of Key Signals
Time Frame Bias Entry Target Stop-Loss
Intraday Bearish <6445 6440-6445 6420-6430 6455
Swing Bullish 6350-6370 6450-6500 6300
Swing Bearish 6470-6485 6400-6420 6520
Critical Events:
Risk Note: US500 is highly sensitive to tech earnings and Fed policy. Use tight stops during events.
Disclaimer: Technical analysis reflects historical patterns, not guarantees. Fundamental catalysts can override signals. Always use risk management.
For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya dot Trade.(world wide web shunya dot trade)
I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work.
Regards,
Shunya.Trade
world wide web shunya dot trade
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
Analysis Methods: Japanese Candlesticks, Harmonic Patterns (ABCD, M/W), Elliott Wave, Wyckoff, Gann Theory (Time/Square of 9/Angles), Ichimoku, RSI, Bollinger Bands, VWAP, Moving Averages (MA/EMA/SMA/WMA).
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1. Long-Term Trend (Weekly/Monthly)
Elliott Wave:
US500 is in Wave 5 of a bull cycle (Wave 3 peak: 6500, Wave 4 dip to 6200).
Target: 6600–6700 (1.618 extension of Wave 1).
Gann Price Forecasting:
Square of 9: √6447.8 ≈ 80.30 →
Key resistance: 81² = 6561, support: 80² = 6400.
Break above 6561 targets 6724 (82²).
[
b]Ichimoku (Monthly):
Tenkan/Kijun: Bullish crossover (Tenkan: 6300 > Kijun: 6200).
Cloud: Price above Senkou Span (6100–6250) – bullish structure.
Moving Averages:
Weekly SMA(200): 6100 (major support).
Swing Outlook: Bullish but extended. Final Wave 5 targets 6600–6700.
2. Medium-Term Swing (4H/Daily)
Harmonic Patterns:
Bearish ABCD on Daily:
A: 6500 → B: 6350 → C: 6450 → D: 6470–6490 (1.272 BC extension).
Bullish Gartley (M Pattern) near 6350 (0.786 XA retracement).
Wyckoff Phase:
Distribution above 6450:
Upthrust at 6470 (16th Aug) on fading volume.
Lack of demand above 6460.
Gann Theory:
Time Window: Aug 19–22 (Square of 9 reversal cluster).
Price-Time Squaring: 6447.8 aligns with Aug 16 – consolidation likely.
Gann Angle: 1x1 support at 6420.
Indicators:
RSI(14) + Bollinger Bands (Daily):
RSI: 66 (neutral-bullish).
Price hugging upper BB(20,2) at 6475 – band expansion signals volatility.
VWAP (Weekly): 6380 (swing support).
Swing Trade Setup:
Short near 6470–6490 → Target 6400. Stop-loss: 6520.
Long near 6350 → Target 6500. Stop-loss: 6300.
3. Intraday Outlook (5M–4H)
Key Levels:
Resistance: 6460 (Gann 1x1), 6475 (daily high), 6490 (ABCD target).
Support: 6440 (VWAP), 6430 (Ichimoku cloud), 6420 (Gann angle).
Indicators:
Ichimoku (1H):
Tenkan: 6445, Kijun: 6435 → Price above both (weak bullish).
Cloud: Thin bullish (6425–6435) – intraday support.
RSI + Bollinger Bands (1H):
RSI(14): 59 (neutral).
Price testing mid-BB(20,2) at 6445 – break below signals bearish shift.
VWAP + MAs:
VWAP: 6442 (intraday pivot).
EMA(20): 6448 (resistance).
Candlestick Patterns:
4H Bearish Engulfing at 6465 → Reversal signal.
1H Evening Star at 6460 → Confirms weakness.
Gann Intraday Squaring:
Time Cycle: 14:00–16:00 UTC+4 (NY open) for volatility.
Price Harmony: Close below 6445 targets 6430 → 6420.
Intraday Trade Plan:
Sell below 6445 → Target 6430 (VWAP) → 6420 (Gann support).
Buy above 6465 only if RSI <65 → Target 6475.
Stop-Loss: 10–15 points.
Summary of Key Signals
Time Frame Bias Entry Target Stop-Loss
Intraday Bearish <6445 6440-6445 6420-6430 6455
Swing Bullish 6350-6370 6450-6500 6300
Swing Bearish 6470-6485 6400-6420 6520
Critical Events:
Gann Reversal Window: Aug 19–22 (watch for Fed minutes/Nvidia earnings).
Daily Close >6500 invalidates bearish patterns and targets 6561.
Risk Note: US500 is highly sensitive to tech earnings and Fed policy. Use tight stops during events.
Disclaimer: Technical analysis reflects historical patterns, not guarantees. Fundamental catalysts can override signals. Always use risk management.
For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya dot Trade.(world wide web shunya dot trade)
I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work.
Regards,
Shunya.Trade
world wide web shunya dot trade
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.