🔍 1. Market Overview
🔸 Technical Outlook (4H Chart)
Price: Currently at 1.37792, just above a strong Buy Zone at 1.37659.
Structure: Bullish trend continuation with higher highs and higher lows.
Targets:
TP Target: Clearly marked at 1.39310 to 1.39793 resistance zone.
Support: Strong base near 1.37659; additional support at 1.35586.
Bias: Bullish, based on structure and rejection near support.
🔸 Trend Projection
The black average trend line shows price is likely to rebound upward starting August 4, aligning with the technical bullish zone.
Green projections suggest upside potential, supporting a long bias.
Red projections are possible but less likely based on current price structure and support strength.
📊 2. Fundamental Analysis
🔸 Labor Market (NFP Report)
Actual: 73k vs Forecast: 110k → -37k miss (Bearish for USD)
Impact: Weak U.S. labor data could temporarily weaken USD, but CAD is even weaker fundamentally (see below), making USDCAD likely to still rise.
🔸 COT (Commitment of Traders) Data
USD: Net short (43.52% long vs 56.48% short) → Slightly bearish.
CAD: Extremely bearish (17.67% long vs 82.33% short).
Net Positioning Bias: Bullish USDCAD (weaker CAD sentiment outweighs USD weakness).
🔸 Retail Sentiment
Retail is 53% Short vs 47% Long → Slightly more traders are betting against USDCAD.
Contrarian View: Retail traders are often wrong at turning points, which adds to bullish bias.
✅ 3. Trade Plan
🟢 Entry Plan
Entry Zone: Between 1.37659 and 1.37800 (buy zone, minor retracement area).
Confirmation: Look for a bullish candlestick reversal pattern (hammer, engulfing) on 1H/4H timeframe.
🎯 Take Profit (TP)
Primary TP: 1.39310 (strong resistance & marked TP target).
Extended TP: 1.39793 (monthly resistance level).
🛑 Stop Loss (SL)
Below support: 1.37250, just below the buy zone to avoid noise.
📌 4. Risk-Reward Ratio
Entry: ~1.3779
SL: 1.3725 (≈54 pips)
TP: 1.3931 (≈152 pips)
R:R ≈ 1:2.8 → Solid setup
⚠️ 5. Risk & News Events
Be aware of upcoming CAD data or USD CPI/inflation releases.
If risk sentiment worsens globally (e.g., oil prices rise → CAD strength), consider tightening stop or partial profits.
🔸 Technical Outlook (4H Chart)
Price: Currently at 1.37792, just above a strong Buy Zone at 1.37659.
Structure: Bullish trend continuation with higher highs and higher lows.
Targets:
TP Target: Clearly marked at 1.39310 to 1.39793 resistance zone.
Support: Strong base near 1.37659; additional support at 1.35586.
Bias: Bullish, based on structure and rejection near support.
🔸 Trend Projection
The black average trend line shows price is likely to rebound upward starting August 4, aligning with the technical bullish zone.
Green projections suggest upside potential, supporting a long bias.
Red projections are possible but less likely based on current price structure and support strength.
📊 2. Fundamental Analysis
🔸 Labor Market (NFP Report)
Actual: 73k vs Forecast: 110k → -37k miss (Bearish for USD)
Impact: Weak U.S. labor data could temporarily weaken USD, but CAD is even weaker fundamentally (see below), making USDCAD likely to still rise.
🔸 COT (Commitment of Traders) Data
USD: Net short (43.52% long vs 56.48% short) → Slightly bearish.
CAD: Extremely bearish (17.67% long vs 82.33% short).
Net Positioning Bias: Bullish USDCAD (weaker CAD sentiment outweighs USD weakness).
🔸 Retail Sentiment
Retail is 53% Short vs 47% Long → Slightly more traders are betting against USDCAD.
Contrarian View: Retail traders are often wrong at turning points, which adds to bullish bias.
✅ 3. Trade Plan
🟢 Entry Plan
Entry Zone: Between 1.37659 and 1.37800 (buy zone, minor retracement area).
Confirmation: Look for a bullish candlestick reversal pattern (hammer, engulfing) on 1H/4H timeframe.
🎯 Take Profit (TP)
Primary TP: 1.39310 (strong resistance & marked TP target).
Extended TP: 1.39793 (monthly resistance level).
🛑 Stop Loss (SL)
Below support: 1.37250, just below the buy zone to avoid noise.
📌 4. Risk-Reward Ratio
Entry: ~1.3779
SL: 1.3725 (≈54 pips)
TP: 1.3931 (≈152 pips)
R:R ≈ 1:2.8 → Solid setup
⚠️ 5. Risk & News Events
Be aware of upcoming CAD data or USD CPI/inflation releases.
If risk sentiment worsens globally (e.g., oil prices rise → CAD strength), consider tightening stop or partial profits.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.