🔥 USD/CAD TRADE PLAN 🔥
📅 Date: May 12, 2025
📋 TRADE PLAN OVERVIEW:
Item Value
Type Swing Trade
Direction Buy
Confidence ⭐⭐⭐⭐✨ (88%)
Risk:Reward 3.7:1
Status Waiting for retrace trigger
Guidance Fresh D1-H4 bullish breakout of consolidation range. Ideal setup: pullback into OB + FVG at 1.3930–1.3950 for long continuation.
📈 MARKET BIAS & TRADE TYPE:
Section Details
Bias Bullish 📈
Trade Type Breakout-Pullback Entry
🔰 CONFIDENCE LEVEL: ⭐⭐⭐⭐✨ – 88% Confluence Factors:
* D1 Breakout from Double-Bottom Base: 25%
* H4 Strong Bullish Structure + Volume: 20%
* FVG & Demand Block Below Current Price: 18%
* USD Strength (macro tailwinds): 10%
* Crude Oil Pressure → CAD Weakness: 10%
* No bearish divergences on RSI/MACD: 5%
📍 ENTRY ZONES:
Zone Type Price Range Justification
🟩 Primary Buy Zone 1.3930–1.3950 H1-H4 demand zone (OB + FVG overlap)
🟨 Secondary Zone 1.3900–1.3915 Deeper pullback; 61.8% retrace + prior HL
❗ STOP LOSS
📍 SL = 1.3890
* Below secondary OB and structural invalidation
* 1.5x ATR (H1) protection buffer
🎯 TAKE PROFITS
TP Target Details
TP1 1.4030 Intraday liquidity high + minor resistance
TP2 1.4085 H4 clean swing top level
TP3 1.4150 March confluence resistance (D1 FVG gap close)
📏 RISK:REWARD
* TP1: ~2.0:1
* TP2: ~3.7:1
* TP3: ~5.2:1 ✅ Excellent multi-tier scaling potential
🧠 MANAGEMENT STRATEGY
* Risk: 0.75%–1.0% depending on confirmation
* Move SL to BE after TP1 hit
* 50% close @ TP1, 30% @ TP2, 20% trailing toward TP3
* Full exit if H1 closes below 1.3890
⚠️ CONFIRMATION CRITERIA
✅ Wait for:
* Rejection wick / bullish engulfing from 1.3930–1.3950
* No entry if price consolidates sideways or rallies without retest
* Optional add-on: M15 demand confirmation (LTF liquidity sweep + flip)
⏳ VALIDITY
Trade Scope Duration Expiry Condition
Swing 48–96 hrs Invalid if price closes below 1.3890
❌ INVALIDATION
* Breakdown below 1.3890 (structure breach)
* DXY sharp reversal or risk-off fading
* CAD strength return via oil or BoC commentary
🌐 FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT
Macro Driver Status
USD Strength Intact – Fed tone + inflation firm
CAD Weakness Oil soft, BoC neutral
Risk Sentiment Mildly risk-on (neutral to bullish bias)
Cross Support USDCAD, USDJPY, USDCHF all bullish
📊 Sentiment Score: +8.1 / 10
📋 FINAL TRADE SUMMARY
USDCAD has executed a clean structural breakout on H4/D1, signaling trend transition. With macro USD support and weakening CAD fundamentals, a pullback into demand at 1.3930–1.3950 will offer an elite continuation long with tight structure and high reward-to-risk.
📅 Date: May 12, 2025
📋 TRADE PLAN OVERVIEW:
Item Value
Type Swing Trade
Direction Buy
Confidence ⭐⭐⭐⭐✨ (88%)
Risk:Reward 3.7:1
Status Waiting for retrace trigger
Guidance Fresh D1-H4 bullish breakout of consolidation range. Ideal setup: pullback into OB + FVG at 1.3930–1.3950 for long continuation.
📈 MARKET BIAS & TRADE TYPE:
Section Details
Bias Bullish 📈
Trade Type Breakout-Pullback Entry
🔰 CONFIDENCE LEVEL: ⭐⭐⭐⭐✨ – 88% Confluence Factors:
* D1 Breakout from Double-Bottom Base: 25%
* H4 Strong Bullish Structure + Volume: 20%
* FVG & Demand Block Below Current Price: 18%
* USD Strength (macro tailwinds): 10%
* Crude Oil Pressure → CAD Weakness: 10%
* No bearish divergences on RSI/MACD: 5%
📍 ENTRY ZONES:
Zone Type Price Range Justification
🟩 Primary Buy Zone 1.3930–1.3950 H1-H4 demand zone (OB + FVG overlap)
🟨 Secondary Zone 1.3900–1.3915 Deeper pullback; 61.8% retrace + prior HL
❗ STOP LOSS
📍 SL = 1.3890
* Below secondary OB and structural invalidation
* 1.5x ATR (H1) protection buffer
🎯 TAKE PROFITS
TP Target Details
TP1 1.4030 Intraday liquidity high + minor resistance
TP2 1.4085 H4 clean swing top level
TP3 1.4150 March confluence resistance (D1 FVG gap close)
📏 RISK:REWARD
* TP1: ~2.0:1
* TP2: ~3.7:1
* TP3: ~5.2:1 ✅ Excellent multi-tier scaling potential
🧠 MANAGEMENT STRATEGY
* Risk: 0.75%–1.0% depending on confirmation
* Move SL to BE after TP1 hit
* 50% close @ TP1, 30% @ TP2, 20% trailing toward TP3
* Full exit if H1 closes below 1.3890
⚠️ CONFIRMATION CRITERIA
✅ Wait for:
* Rejection wick / bullish engulfing from 1.3930–1.3950
* No entry if price consolidates sideways or rallies without retest
* Optional add-on: M15 demand confirmation (LTF liquidity sweep + flip)
⏳ VALIDITY
Trade Scope Duration Expiry Condition
Swing 48–96 hrs Invalid if price closes below 1.3890
❌ INVALIDATION
* Breakdown below 1.3890 (structure breach)
* DXY sharp reversal or risk-off fading
* CAD strength return via oil or BoC commentary
🌐 FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT
Macro Driver Status
USD Strength Intact – Fed tone + inflation firm
CAD Weakness Oil soft, BoC neutral
Risk Sentiment Mildly risk-on (neutral to bullish bias)
Cross Support USDCAD, USDJPY, USDCHF all bullish
📊 Sentiment Score: +8.1 / 10
📋 FINAL TRADE SUMMARY
USDCAD has executed a clean structural breakout on H4/D1, signaling trend transition. With macro USD support and weakening CAD fundamentals, a pullback into demand at 1.3930–1.3950 will offer an elite continuation long with tight structure and high reward-to-risk.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.