The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. Due to the location of this currency pair at the ceiling of the channel, you can save a part of your purchase position. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions.
Monetary Policy in Canada
• Interest Rate Cuts:
Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December (previous forecast: 25 basis points). It is expected that this downward trend will continue, reaching a terminal rate of 2.25% by June 2025 (previous forecast: 2.50%).
Oil Developments in the U.S.
• Crude Oil Production:
U.S. crude oil production has reached 13.23 million barrels per day this year, slightly higher than the previous figure of 13.22 million. For 2024, production is forecasted at 13.53 million barrels per day (a minor decrease from the previous forecast of 13.54 million barrels).
• Crude Oil Prices:
The average price of Brent oil in 2024 is projected at $80.95 per barrel (slightly higher than the previous forecast of $80.89). For 2025, the average is expected to decline to $76.06 per barrel (previous forecast: $77.59).
The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is estimated at $77 per barrel in 2024 and $71.6 in 2025, slightly below earlier projections.
Oil Demand:
• U.S. oil demand for 2024 and 2025 is estimated at 20.3 million and 20.5 million barrels per day, unchanged from previous forecasts.
OPEC and Production Adjustments:
• Lower Global Demand Growth Forecasts:
OPEC has reduced its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025 to 1.82 and 1.54 million barrels per day, respectively (previous forecasts: 1.93 and 1.64 million).
• Increased OPEC Production:
OPEC’s average crude production in October rose to 26. 53 million barrels per day, a 466,000-barrel increase from September, primarily due to higher output from Libya.
Geopolitical Issues and Iran’s Oil Policies
• Iran’s Response to Sanctions:
Iran’s oil minister announced that plans have been developed to maintain stable oil exports to counter potential policies from Donald Trump’s administration.
• Negotiations Between Iran and the U.S.:
Iranian sources reported that Tehran postponed an attack on Israel after Trump’s election to facilitate potential negotiations. Messages conveyed through Baghdad included recommendations to avoid escalating tensions and create an opportunity for talks.
Developments in Lebanon and Israel
• Ceasefire negotiations in Lebanon are nearing conclusion. Israeli sources have confirmed alignment between the U.S. and Israel on the ceasefire agreement. However, Lebanon’s situation remains complex, with ongoing discussions between Hezbollah, the parliament speaker, the prime minister, and U.S. officials.
Monetary Policy in Canada
• Interest Rate Cuts:
Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December (previous forecast: 25 basis points). It is expected that this downward trend will continue, reaching a terminal rate of 2.25% by June 2025 (previous forecast: 2.50%).
Oil Developments in the U.S.
• Crude Oil Production:
U.S. crude oil production has reached 13.23 million barrels per day this year, slightly higher than the previous figure of 13.22 million. For 2024, production is forecasted at 13.53 million barrels per day (a minor decrease from the previous forecast of 13.54 million barrels).
• Crude Oil Prices:
The average price of Brent oil in 2024 is projected at $80.95 per barrel (slightly higher than the previous forecast of $80.89). For 2025, the average is expected to decline to $76.06 per barrel (previous forecast: $77.59).
The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is estimated at $77 per barrel in 2024 and $71.6 in 2025, slightly below earlier projections.
Oil Demand:
• U.S. oil demand for 2024 and 2025 is estimated at 20.3 million and 20.5 million barrels per day, unchanged from previous forecasts.
OPEC and Production Adjustments:
• Lower Global Demand Growth Forecasts:
OPEC has reduced its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025 to 1.82 and 1.54 million barrels per day, respectively (previous forecasts: 1.93 and 1.64 million).
• Increased OPEC Production:
OPEC’s average crude production in October rose to 26. 53 million barrels per day, a 466,000-barrel increase from September, primarily due to higher output from Libya.
Geopolitical Issues and Iran’s Oil Policies
• Iran’s Response to Sanctions:
Iran’s oil minister announced that plans have been developed to maintain stable oil exports to counter potential policies from Donald Trump’s administration.
• Negotiations Between Iran and the U.S.:
Iranian sources reported that Tehran postponed an attack on Israel after Trump’s election to facilitate potential negotiations. Messages conveyed through Baghdad included recommendations to avoid escalating tensions and create an opportunity for talks.
Developments in Lebanon and Israel
• Ceasefire negotiations in Lebanon are nearing conclusion. Israeli sources have confirmed alignment between the U.S. and Israel on the ceasefire agreement. However, Lebanon’s situation remains complex, with ongoing discussions between Hezbollah, the parliament speaker, the prime minister, and U.S. officials.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.