📊 USDCAD Institutional Market Outlook
🔷 Monthly & Weekly Structure – Bearish Bias
A Monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG) was formed after a breakaway gap, closing all prior bullish FVGs. This signals strong bearish intent from institutions, with a likely draw toward the next key liquidity level at 1.34210.
Similarly, a Weekly FVG, also formed from a breakaway imbalance, is currently acting as an unmitigated supply zone. Historically, FVGs formed from breakaway moves are not revisited until the market completes its delivery to a main liquidity pool — in this case, the 1.34210 level.
Price is now consolidating below this weekly FVG, reinforcing a continuation bias rather than reversal.
🔹 Daily Structure – Short-Term Countertrend Rally
A bullish Daily FVG has recently formed, suggesting a possible short-term countertrend rally.
However, due to the breakaway nature of the weekly FVG, price is unlikely to reach back up to 1.3760 before continuing its bearish path.
A probable scenario: price may react from daily demand zones, push into a short-term premium area, then resume its decline toward 1.34210.
🌐 Fundamental Confluence
🟥 CAD Weakness:
U.S. tariff policy is placing heavy pressure on the Canadian economy, especially in autos, steel, and oil sectors.
Recent SECO reports and tariff-related projections expect a long-term GDP drag of ~2.1%.
Although oil prices have slightly rebounded, it's not enough to counterbalance the trade and policy headwinds.
🟩 USD Strength:
The U.S. dollar remains supported by global safe haven flows and a resilient macro backdrop.
No significant shift in Fed policy tone has emerged, and the USD continues to benefit from relative strength across multiple pairs.
| Timeframe | Bias | Reason |
| ------------ | ------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Monthly | Bearish | Breakaway FVG + closed bullish zones → draw toward 1.34210 |
| Weekly | Bearish | Consolidation below breakaway supply zone |
| Daily | Short-term bullish | Countertrend move expected into local premium, likely to fail near 1.3760 |
| Fundamentals | Bearish CAD, Bullish USD | Tariff risks + economic divergence
🔷 Monthly & Weekly Structure – Bearish Bias
A Monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG) was formed after a breakaway gap, closing all prior bullish FVGs. This signals strong bearish intent from institutions, with a likely draw toward the next key liquidity level at 1.34210.
Similarly, a Weekly FVG, also formed from a breakaway imbalance, is currently acting as an unmitigated supply zone. Historically, FVGs formed from breakaway moves are not revisited until the market completes its delivery to a main liquidity pool — in this case, the 1.34210 level.
Price is now consolidating below this weekly FVG, reinforcing a continuation bias rather than reversal.
🔹 Daily Structure – Short-Term Countertrend Rally
A bullish Daily FVG has recently formed, suggesting a possible short-term countertrend rally.
However, due to the breakaway nature of the weekly FVG, price is unlikely to reach back up to 1.3760 before continuing its bearish path.
A probable scenario: price may react from daily demand zones, push into a short-term premium area, then resume its decline toward 1.34210.
🌐 Fundamental Confluence
🟥 CAD Weakness:
U.S. tariff policy is placing heavy pressure on the Canadian economy, especially in autos, steel, and oil sectors.
Recent SECO reports and tariff-related projections expect a long-term GDP drag of ~2.1%.
Although oil prices have slightly rebounded, it's not enough to counterbalance the trade and policy headwinds.
🟩 USD Strength:
The U.S. dollar remains supported by global safe haven flows and a resilient macro backdrop.
No significant shift in Fed policy tone has emerged, and the USD continues to benefit from relative strength across multiple pairs.
| Timeframe | Bias | Reason |
| ------------ | ------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Monthly | Bearish | Breakaway FVG + closed bullish zones → draw toward 1.34210 |
| Weekly | Bearish | Consolidation below breakaway supply zone |
| Daily | Short-term bullish | Countertrend move expected into local premium, likely to fail near 1.3760 |
| Fundamentals | Bearish CAD, Bullish USD | Tariff risks + economic divergence
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.