USD/CHF - June 13, 2025
📋 Plan Overview
Type: Countertrend Buy
Direction: Long
Confidence: Medium-High
R:R: ~2.5:1
Status: Waiting for retracement or confirmation
📈 Market Bias & Type
Short-term reversal opportunity inside long-term bearish trend
Bias: Temporary bullish correction
Type: Reversal (LTF Bounce against HTF trend)
🔰 Confidence Level with % and Breakdown
Total: 70%
HTF Oversold/Wick Rejection: 25%
Bullish H1-H4 structure shift: 20%
Volume spike + H1 engulfing: 15%
Fundamental/Sentiment: 10%
📍 Entry Zones
Primary: 0.8110 - 0.8120 (pullback zone to broken H1 structure)
Secondary: 0.8085 (origin of impulse leg if deeper retracement happens)
❗ SL with Reasoning
SL: 0.8050
Below the low of June 13 H1 reversal candle + structural invalidation
🎯 TP1/TP2/TP3 Targets
TP1: 0.8180 (recent H1 supply flip)
TP2: 0.8225 (H4 resistance)
TP3: 0.8290 (D1 imbalance fill area)
🧠 Management Strategy
Risk: 1%
Scaling: Add on confirmation from H1 higher low (0.8140+)
Breakeven: After TP1 or on strong bullish H1 candle + volume confirmation
⚠️ Confirmation Checklist
✅ Bullish engulfing on H1
✅ Impulse breakout structure
✅ Volume rise on reversal candle
⚠️ Still awaiting H1 retest or HL (no rush entry)
⏳ Validity
H1: 12h
H4: 36–48h max (until invalidation)
❌ Invalidation Conditions
Clean break and close below 0.8050
Failure to form HL and break above 0.8145 (range trap risk)
🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot
CHF remains firm on safe haven flow
USD broadly weaker on Fed rate pause expectations
CPI/retail sentiment suggests potential DXY weakness short-term
Safe haven profit-taking could lift USD short-term
📋 Final Trade Summary
Looking for a corrective buy in a broader USDCHF downtrend. Signs of early reversal on LTFs with clean H1 impulse leg. Entry awaits retracement into structure. Conservative targets aligned with HTF levels. Risk tightly defined; no overexposure.
📋 Plan Overview
Type: Countertrend Buy
Direction: Long
Confidence: Medium-High
R:R: ~2.5:1
Status: Waiting for retracement or confirmation
📈 Market Bias & Type
Short-term reversal opportunity inside long-term bearish trend
Bias: Temporary bullish correction
Type: Reversal (LTF Bounce against HTF trend)
🔰 Confidence Level with % and Breakdown
Total: 70%
HTF Oversold/Wick Rejection: 25%
Bullish H1-H4 structure shift: 20%
Volume spike + H1 engulfing: 15%
Fundamental/Sentiment: 10%
📍 Entry Zones
Primary: 0.8110 - 0.8120 (pullback zone to broken H1 structure)
Secondary: 0.8085 (origin of impulse leg if deeper retracement happens)
❗ SL with Reasoning
SL: 0.8050
Below the low of June 13 H1 reversal candle + structural invalidation
🎯 TP1/TP2/TP3 Targets
TP1: 0.8180 (recent H1 supply flip)
TP2: 0.8225 (H4 resistance)
TP3: 0.8290 (D1 imbalance fill area)
🧠 Management Strategy
Risk: 1%
Scaling: Add on confirmation from H1 higher low (0.8140+)
Breakeven: After TP1 or on strong bullish H1 candle + volume confirmation
⚠️ Confirmation Checklist
✅ Bullish engulfing on H1
✅ Impulse breakout structure
✅ Volume rise on reversal candle
⚠️ Still awaiting H1 retest or HL (no rush entry)
⏳ Validity
H1: 12h
H4: 36–48h max (until invalidation)
❌ Invalidation Conditions
Clean break and close below 0.8050
Failure to form HL and break above 0.8145 (range trap risk)
🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot
CHF remains firm on safe haven flow
USD broadly weaker on Fed rate pause expectations
CPI/retail sentiment suggests potential DXY weakness short-term
Safe haven profit-taking could lift USD short-term
📋 Final Trade Summary
Looking for a corrective buy in a broader USDCHF downtrend. Signs of early reversal on LTFs with clean H1 impulse leg. Entry awaits retracement into structure. Conservative targets aligned with HTF levels. Risk tightly defined; no overexposure.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.