1️⃣ Technical Outlook
TF Structure & Momentum Verdict
Weekly (W1) Lower-lows since Jan; bearish OB at 0.8400 caps rallies Bearish
Daily (D1) Clean bearish channel; Friday close < mid-channel Bearish
H4 Consolidation under 0.8335 FVG after liquidity sweep Bearish
Trend-Aligned ✅
2️⃣ Primary Alert Zones (H4)
Zone Price Type Setup Idea
0.8335 – 0.8350 Bearish OB + FVG Break-&-retest short
0.8260 – 0.8250 Weekly swing low TP1 / possible bounce
0.8200 – 0.8180 Liquidity pocket TP2 / extended target
3️⃣ Indicator Snapshot
RSI (H4): 38 → momentum still weak
MACD (D1): below 0, widening histo → bearish pressure
ATR (1 h): ≈ 10 pips (14-period)
Tick Vol (trigger-candle rule): need > 20 % above avg
4️⃣ Fundamental & Sentiment Radar
USD side: Dollar Index 99.25, stabilising after 4-wk slide
Investing.com
CHF side: SNB jawboning risk – talk of curbing CHF strength
Investing.com
Next Red-Flag Events:
FOMC (May 6-7) – full blackout starts Apr 26 00:00 (today)
Home
US ISM Mfg (May 1)
Swiss CPI (May 2)
Net positioning: CFTC shows record CHF longs vs USD → crowded trade (contrarian squeeze risk).
Risk Mood: Equities firm; CHF retains safe-haven bid if risk fades.
5️⃣ Trade Considerations (BEES v2)
Entry Trigger: M15 bearish engulf at 0.8335 OB + volume > 20 %
Rejection Filters: No trade if price < 0.8300 without retest (chase risk)
No-Trade Zone: ±50 pips around 0.8400 HTF resistance unless clean breakout
6️⃣ Risk Management
ATR-based SL: 1.5 × 10 pips ≈ 15 pips
TP Plan:
TP1 0.8260 (≈ 2 R)
TP2 0.8200 (≈ 3 R)
Trail remainder via H1 swing highs
7️⃣ Execution Checklist ✅/❌
HTF trend aligned
Volume surge > 20 % required
Outside 6 h of red-flag release (entry after NY open Mon)
Confidence ≥ High
Price not in No-Trade Zone
8️⃣ Pre-Trade Grading (0–2 each)
Criterion Score
Trend Alignment 2
Confluence Strength 2
Price Behaviour 2
Risk : Reward Quality 2
Event Risk Filtered 1
Total 9 / 10 → Trade Valid
🗺️ Time-Based Volatility Map
Session Expectation
Asia (Sun 17:00-00:00 EST) Likely gap fill, low vol
London (03:00-06:00 EST) Highest probability retest zone
NY (08:00-11:00 EST) USD data spikes; monitor spreads
🧩 Correlation Radar
EUR/CHF also heavy – confirms CHF strength
DXY soft; correlated pairs (USD/CAD, USD/JPY) biased lower
TF Structure & Momentum Verdict
Weekly (W1) Lower-lows since Jan; bearish OB at 0.8400 caps rallies Bearish
Daily (D1) Clean bearish channel; Friday close < mid-channel Bearish
H4 Consolidation under 0.8335 FVG after liquidity sweep Bearish
Trend-Aligned ✅
2️⃣ Primary Alert Zones (H4)
Zone Price Type Setup Idea
0.8335 – 0.8350 Bearish OB + FVG Break-&-retest short
0.8260 – 0.8250 Weekly swing low TP1 / possible bounce
0.8200 – 0.8180 Liquidity pocket TP2 / extended target
3️⃣ Indicator Snapshot
RSI (H4): 38 → momentum still weak
MACD (D1): below 0, widening histo → bearish pressure
ATR (1 h): ≈ 10 pips (14-period)
Tick Vol (trigger-candle rule): need > 20 % above avg
4️⃣ Fundamental & Sentiment Radar
USD side: Dollar Index 99.25, stabilising after 4-wk slide
Investing.com
CHF side: SNB jawboning risk – talk of curbing CHF strength
Investing.com
Next Red-Flag Events:
FOMC (May 6-7) – full blackout starts Apr 26 00:00 (today)
Home
US ISM Mfg (May 1)
Swiss CPI (May 2)
Net positioning: CFTC shows record CHF longs vs USD → crowded trade (contrarian squeeze risk).
Risk Mood: Equities firm; CHF retains safe-haven bid if risk fades.
5️⃣ Trade Considerations (BEES v2)
Entry Trigger: M15 bearish engulf at 0.8335 OB + volume > 20 %
Rejection Filters: No trade if price < 0.8300 without retest (chase risk)
No-Trade Zone: ±50 pips around 0.8400 HTF resistance unless clean breakout
6️⃣ Risk Management
ATR-based SL: 1.5 × 10 pips ≈ 15 pips
TP Plan:
TP1 0.8260 (≈ 2 R)
TP2 0.8200 (≈ 3 R)
Trail remainder via H1 swing highs
7️⃣ Execution Checklist ✅/❌
HTF trend aligned
Volume surge > 20 % required
Outside 6 h of red-flag release (entry after NY open Mon)
Confidence ≥ High
Price not in No-Trade Zone
8️⃣ Pre-Trade Grading (0–2 each)
Criterion Score
Trend Alignment 2
Confluence Strength 2
Price Behaviour 2
Risk : Reward Quality 2
Event Risk Filtered 1
Total 9 / 10 → Trade Valid
🗺️ Time-Based Volatility Map
Session Expectation
Asia (Sun 17:00-00:00 EST) Likely gap fill, low vol
London (03:00-06:00 EST) Highest probability retest zone
NY (08:00-11:00 EST) USD data spikes; monitor spreads
🧩 Correlation Radar
EUR/CHF also heavy – confirms CHF strength
DXY soft; correlated pairs (USD/CAD, USD/JPY) biased lower
Trade closed: target reached
TP hit
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.