The July opening range broke to the topside on the heels of yesterday’s FOMC rate decision and takes USD/CHF back above the 25% parallel- a weekly close back above the April lows at 8040 tomorrow would suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger reversal is underway. Look for initial support near 8103 today for guidance.
Initial topside resistance objectives eyed at the 1.618% extension of the monthly advance and the 61.8% retracement of the May decline at 8222/46 backed by the median line, currently near the 83-handle. Key lateral resistance stands at 8380-8416- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range, the 2024 low-close, the 2023 low-week close (LWC) and the 2024 yearly open (an area of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached).
Support rests at the yearly LWC at 7946 with a break / close below 7881 needed to mark resumption of the broader multi-year downtrend. Subsequent support objectives seen at the 2011 LWC at 7769 and the 2011 low-close at 7669.
Bottom line: USD/CHF is threatening a larger reversal within the broader downtrend. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 8040 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with weekly close above 8103 on Friday needed to keep the immediate advance viable into the August open.
-MB
Initial topside resistance objectives eyed at the 1.618% extension of the monthly advance and the 61.8% retracement of the May decline at 8222/46 backed by the median line, currently near the 83-handle. Key lateral resistance stands at 8380-8416- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range, the 2024 low-close, the 2023 low-week close (LWC) and the 2024 yearly open (an area of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached).
Support rests at the yearly LWC at 7946 with a break / close below 7881 needed to mark resumption of the broader multi-year downtrend. Subsequent support objectives seen at the 2011 LWC at 7769 and the 2011 low-close at 7669.
Bottom line: USD/CHF is threatening a larger reversal within the broader downtrend. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 8040 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with weekly close above 8103 on Friday needed to keep the immediate advance viable into the August open.
-MB
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.