USD/CHF is flashing a strong bearish signal from both a macro and sentiment perspective.
✅ Bearish USD Drivers:
FOMC Pivot Watch: July meeting minutes hinted at potential rate cuts before year-end due to inflation moderating and soft jobs data.
Rising Swiss Franc Demand: CHF is benefiting from safe haven flows amid escalating tensions in Eastern Europe and shaky U.S. equity markets.
Swiss CPI Stable: Inflation is in check, allowing SNB to maintain their policy stance without pressure.
Institutional traders are reducing their exposure to the U.S. dollar, while retail traders are net long USDCHF — a classic contrarian bearish signal. Seasonality also favors Swiss Franc strength in August. On the macro side, U.S. data is underwhelming: job growth has slowed, services PMI is soft, and inflation metrics (CPI, PCE) are cooling. This has increased expectations for a Fed rate cut later in the year. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank remains stable with no urgency to ease policy. Combined with global risk-off sentiment, capital is flowing into CHF, giving it an added edge over the dollar.
✅ Bearish USD Drivers:
FOMC Pivot Watch: July meeting minutes hinted at potential rate cuts before year-end due to inflation moderating and soft jobs data.
Rising Swiss Franc Demand: CHF is benefiting from safe haven flows amid escalating tensions in Eastern Europe and shaky U.S. equity markets.
Swiss CPI Stable: Inflation is in check, allowing SNB to maintain their policy stance without pressure.
Institutional traders are reducing their exposure to the U.S. dollar, while retail traders are net long USDCHF — a classic contrarian bearish signal. Seasonality also favors Swiss Franc strength in August. On the macro side, U.S. data is underwhelming: job growth has slowed, services PMI is soft, and inflation metrics (CPI, PCE) are cooling. This has increased expectations for a Fed rate cut later in the year. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank remains stable with no urgency to ease policy. Combined with global risk-off sentiment, capital is flowing into CHF, giving it an added edge over the dollar.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.