Currently, the USD/CHF pair is going through a bearish phase, influenced by several economic and geopolitical factors.
Influence of US Trade Tariffs: Recent trade tariffs imposed by the United States have strengthened the Swiss franc, creating pressure on Switzerland's export-oriented economy. This scenario could push the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to consider introducing negative interest rates to counter the appreciation of the currency and support the economy.
Monetary Policy of the SNB: In June 2024, the SNB reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to 1.25%. Inflation forecasts were revised downward, indicating 1.3% for 2024 and 1.1% for 2025. These adjustments reflect economic challenges and the SNB's intent to avoid deflation.
Swiss Franc Forecast: Analysts from Bank of America have expressed doubts about the sustainability of the Swiss franc's weakness in 2025. Despite expectations of lower interest rates, the SNB may be reluctant to implement unconventional measures, given the limited effectiveness of such policies in the past.
Technical Analysis: The daily chart shows a range between a maximum of 0.82 and a minimum of 0.92, which has been respected for the past three years. Currently, the price is approaching the upper limit of the channel, suggesting a possible downward correction. However, a break above 0.92 could indicate an extension of the bullish movement.
Conclusion: The bearish trend of USD/CHF is influenced by both internal and external factors, including SNB policies, US trade tariffs, and market dynamics. Investors should closely monitor SNB decisions, international trade policies, and key economic indicators to assess potential developments in the USD/CHF exchange rate.
Influence of US Trade Tariffs: Recent trade tariffs imposed by the United States have strengthened the Swiss franc, creating pressure on Switzerland's export-oriented economy. This scenario could push the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to consider introducing negative interest rates to counter the appreciation of the currency and support the economy.
Monetary Policy of the SNB: In June 2024, the SNB reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to 1.25%. Inflation forecasts were revised downward, indicating 1.3% for 2024 and 1.1% for 2025. These adjustments reflect economic challenges and the SNB's intent to avoid deflation.
Swiss Franc Forecast: Analysts from Bank of America have expressed doubts about the sustainability of the Swiss franc's weakness in 2025. Despite expectations of lower interest rates, the SNB may be reluctant to implement unconventional measures, given the limited effectiveness of such policies in the past.
Technical Analysis: The daily chart shows a range between a maximum of 0.82 and a minimum of 0.92, which has been respected for the past three years. Currently, the price is approaching the upper limit of the channel, suggesting a possible downward correction. However, a break above 0.92 could indicate an extension of the bullish movement.
Conclusion: The bearish trend of USD/CHF is influenced by both internal and external factors, including SNB policies, US trade tariffs, and market dynamics. Investors should closely monitor SNB decisions, international trade policies, and key economic indicators to assess potential developments in the USD/CHF exchange rate.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.