Hey everyone, Skeptic here! Let’s kick off the week with a sharp USD/CHF analysis, a pair that’s flashing some juicy short opportunities! 📉 Stick around as I break down why this could be a prime setup. Let’s dive in with the Daily Timeframe. 📊
Daily Timeframe: The Big Picture
USD/CHF has been rocking a major bullish trend, but in recent weeks, it’s slipped into a secondary corrective trend, pulling back to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. This tells us the bullish momentum is still alive and kicking. The last candle, closed on May 12, was a full bearish engulfing pattern, showing that despite the correction, buyer strength is weak, and sellers are taking over. Because of this, if our short triggers activate, we could ride the continuation of the major bullish trend (likely a typo in the original, as the context suggests a bearish move for shorts) and target levels at 0.81904 and 0.80865. If 0.80865 breaks, per Dow Theory, the major bullish trend officially resumes, and we can open shorts with more confidence and higher risk. With this big-picture view, let’s zoom into the 4-Hour Timeframe to find our long and short triggers.
4-Hour Timeframe: Long & Short Setups
For our short setup, the main trigger is a break below the support at 0.83264. As you can see, we’ve reacted to this support twice, but each time, we formed lower highs, signaling this support is getting weaker and weaker. This makes a break more likely. You could place a stop sell below this level, but personally, I wait for a breakout candle on the 15-minute timeframe to confirm. For a long setup, I’m not opening longs until we consolidate above 0.83902 and see uptrend momentum return. The risk of hitting a stop loss is too high otherwise, and since we’d be trading against the main trend, sudden reversals are likely, giving us a lower R/R. 😎
💬 Let’s Talk!
If this analysis helped you out, give it a quick boost—it means a lot! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to tackle next? Drop it in the comments, and I’ll get to it. Thanks for hanging out, and I’ll see you in the next one. Keep trading smart! ✌️
Daily Timeframe: The Big Picture
USD/CHF has been rocking a major bullish trend, but in recent weeks, it’s slipped into a secondary corrective trend, pulling back to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. This tells us the bullish momentum is still alive and kicking. The last candle, closed on May 12, was a full bearish engulfing pattern, showing that despite the correction, buyer strength is weak, and sellers are taking over. Because of this, if our short triggers activate, we could ride the continuation of the major bullish trend (likely a typo in the original, as the context suggests a bearish move for shorts) and target levels at 0.81904 and 0.80865. If 0.80865 breaks, per Dow Theory, the major bullish trend officially resumes, and we can open shorts with more confidence and higher risk. With this big-picture view, let’s zoom into the 4-Hour Timeframe to find our long and short triggers.
4-Hour Timeframe: Long & Short Setups
For our short setup, the main trigger is a break below the support at 0.83264. As you can see, we’ve reacted to this support twice, but each time, we formed lower highs, signaling this support is getting weaker and weaker. This makes a break more likely. You could place a stop sell below this level, but personally, I wait for a breakout candle on the 15-minute timeframe to confirm. For a long setup, I’m not opening longs until we consolidate above 0.83902 and see uptrend momentum return. The risk of hitting a stop loss is too high otherwise, and since we’d be trading against the main trend, sudden reversals are likely, giving us a lower R/R. 😎
💬 Let’s Talk!
If this analysis helped you out, give it a quick boost—it means a lot! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to tackle next? Drop it in the comments, and I’ll get to it. Thanks for hanging out, and I’ll see you in the next one. Keep trading smart! ✌️
Trade closed: target reached
Hey everyone, Skeptic here! Quick update on our USD/CHF short trade! 😊Short Trigger: Our short position kicked in after the break below 0.83264, confirmed by a solid 4-hour breakout candle.
Stop Loss: Placed above the previous high for safety.
Result: We’ve hit a 3:1 R/R so far—nice one if you jumped in! 🙌
Next Steps: Hope you’re riding this move! To catch signals like this, follow the channel and turn on notifications so you don’t miss out! 📢 Weathermen forecast. We trade :)
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.