Here’s a fresh, focused read on USD/JPY using today’s news, data, and technicals, plus trader sentiment on 4 hour charts.
What changed today so far... (Aug 13, 2025)
CPI came in mild (~2.7% YoY) → markets ramped up odds of a September Fed cut (≈94–98%) → Treasury yields/dollar slipped. That kept USD/JPY heavy after a pop to ~148.5 earlier in the week.
4-hour technicals (levels that matter)
Range defined by MAs: Price has been ping-ponging between the 4h 100-bar MA (~147.94) and 4h 200-bar MA (~146.73). A break of either side likely sets the near-term trend.
Nearby resistance: 148.00/148.50 (recent weekly high ~148.52). A sustained 4h close above opens 149.00 → 149.50.
Nearby support: 147.10 (intra-range floor) then 146.70 (4h 200-MA); below that, risk toward 146.00–145.50.
Short MAs (8 & 16 on 4h charts): With CPI softness pressuring USD, the very short MAs are flattening/near price (typical in a range). A bearish tilt re-asserts if price rides below them toward the 200-MA; a bullish turn needs reclaims above them and a close >148.00/148.50. (Directional inference from the cited 4h range behavior.)
Sentiment & positioning
Retail positioning: Net-long skew persists (~61% long / 39% short), a contrarian negative for USD/JPY if the skew persists into weakness. Ahead of/after CPI, trader bias for USD leaned bearish (BofA), and the dollar index eased post-release. That favors JPY on dips unless risk rallies push yields back up.
Tradeable take (4-hour game plan)
Bias now: Mildly bearish / range-to-down while below 148.00–148.50 and especially if price holds under the 8/16 4h MAs toward the 200-bar MA (~146.7).
Bearish continuation trigger: 4h close below 146.70 (200-MA) → momentum target 146.00 → 145.50; invalidation back above 147.20–147.40.
Bullish reversal trigger: 4h close above 148.50 (and holding above the short MAs) → targets 149.00 → 149.50; invalidation on a drop back below 148.00.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Today’s softer CPI + higher cut odds keep USD/JPY on the back foot, with the pair stuck between the 4h 100- and 200-bar MAs. Until 148.50 breaks, risk skews to a grind lower toward 146.7 → 146.0; a clean topside break flips bias to 149+~.
Thank you for reading, and happy trading!
_________________________________
DISCLAIMER: This analysis was conducted by our in-house team of multi-level traders. We are not responsible for any losses you may incur. Always do you own research before trading.
What changed today so far... (Aug 13, 2025)
CPI came in mild (~2.7% YoY) → markets ramped up odds of a September Fed cut (≈94–98%) → Treasury yields/dollar slipped. That kept USD/JPY heavy after a pop to ~148.5 earlier in the week.
4-hour technicals (levels that matter)
Range defined by MAs: Price has been ping-ponging between the 4h 100-bar MA (~147.94) and 4h 200-bar MA (~146.73). A break of either side likely sets the near-term trend.
Nearby resistance: 148.00/148.50 (recent weekly high ~148.52). A sustained 4h close above opens 149.00 → 149.50.
Nearby support: 147.10 (intra-range floor) then 146.70 (4h 200-MA); below that, risk toward 146.00–145.50.
Short MAs (8 & 16 on 4h charts): With CPI softness pressuring USD, the very short MAs are flattening/near price (typical in a range). A bearish tilt re-asserts if price rides below them toward the 200-MA; a bullish turn needs reclaims above them and a close >148.00/148.50. (Directional inference from the cited 4h range behavior.)
Sentiment & positioning
Retail positioning: Net-long skew persists (~61% long / 39% short), a contrarian negative for USD/JPY if the skew persists into weakness. Ahead of/after CPI, trader bias for USD leaned bearish (BofA), and the dollar index eased post-release. That favors JPY on dips unless risk rallies push yields back up.
Tradeable take (4-hour game plan)
Bias now: Mildly bearish / range-to-down while below 148.00–148.50 and especially if price holds under the 8/16 4h MAs toward the 200-bar MA (~146.7).
Bearish continuation trigger: 4h close below 146.70 (200-MA) → momentum target 146.00 → 145.50; invalidation back above 147.20–147.40.
Bullish reversal trigger: 4h close above 148.50 (and holding above the short MAs) → targets 149.00 → 149.50; invalidation on a drop back below 148.00.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Today’s softer CPI + higher cut odds keep USD/JPY on the back foot, with the pair stuck between the 4h 100- and 200-bar MAs. Until 148.50 breaks, risk skews to a grind lower toward 146.7 → 146.0; a clean topside break flips bias to 149+~.
Thank you for reading, and happy trading!
_________________________________
DISCLAIMER: This analysis was conducted by our in-house team of multi-level traders. We are not responsible for any losses you may incur. Always do you own research before trading.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Follow us for expert analysis! Check out our new YOUTUBE channel at Youtube.com/@Howto-Forex
And visit HOWTO.FOREX to pre-register to enroll in our Forex Ninja Bootcamp (using only your email address) - A bootcamp/mastermind for serious traders!
And visit HOWTO.FOREX to pre-register to enroll in our Forex Ninja Bootcamp (using only your email address) - A bootcamp/mastermind for serious traders!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.