Analysis on USD/JPY LONG

70
Hello! As we all know the Thursday NFP came in positive for USD thereby making usd to be in stronger position against the JPY. More analysis are stated below


US–Japan Interest Rate Divergence

Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains cautious post its January rate hike, with rates near 0.5% and monetary policy likely on hold through 2025

U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has postponed cuts amid robust job data and inflation above target; markets have pulled forward rate cut expectations to autumn rather than summer .

The interest-rate gap (USD >4%, JPY ~0.5%) favours a stronger dollar but carries a steep “carry cost” for yen investors .

Economic Outlooks & Trade Dynamics
Japan’s Q2 business sentiment (Tankan) is slightly positive, despite export weakness due to tariff risks

U.S.–Japan trade tensions are escalating, with looming tariffs on Japanese car imports potentially impacting growth and yen sentiment
reddit.com

Persistent Japanese inflation (~2.5% in Tokyo) and wage gains (~2.8%) bolster long-term BoJ tightening expectations

Summary: The dollar remains supported by stronger U.S. policy and treasury yields. Meanwhile, Japan’s cautious BoJ, inflation, and trade vulnerabilities push the yen—and thus USD/JPY—into a volatile bracket.

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.