USD/JPY 1H – Analysis
🔍 1. Context: Macro Fundamentals
BOJ (Bank of Japan) remains dovish, showing little intention of raising rates significantly.
USD strength continues due to sticky inflation and delayed rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Geopolitical risks and U.S. economic resilience further strengthen the dollar.
This macro backdrop supports bearish JPY bias, hence a long USD/JPY setup aligns with the fundamentals.
🧠 2. Structure and Liquidity Analysis
Price recently swept sell-side liquidity (marked by the dip into demand zone).
Strong bullish reaction from a demand block confirms interest from smart money.
The market has now printed a short-term higher low, signaling a possible intent to create a new leg up.
📌 3. Entry, Stop Loss, Target (SMC-Based)
✅ Entry:
At 144.180–144.250 (refinement inside the lower bullish reaccumulation zone).
This zone represents a mitigation of a lower imbalance and offers a favorable risk-reward long.
❌ Stop Loss:
Below 143.880, beneath the refined demand zone and last liquidity sweep — if broken, the bullish narrative is invalidated in this leg.
🎯 Target 1 (Partial):
145.400 — first major supply zone where prior imbalance sits and price previously reversed. Could see first reaction here.
🎯 Target 2 (Final TP):
146.280 – 146.400 — a higher timeframe buy-side liquidity pool and previous distribution origin.
Risk-to-reward is well-optimized at 1:4+, depending on execution precision.
🔄 4. Price Action Expectations
Price may retest the 144.200–144.250 zone (demand).
If order flow remains bullish, expect a clean break of internal high at 145.180.
Watch for reaction at 145.400, but holding partials for a liquidity run toward 146.280+ is justified.
📉 5. Invalidation Scenario
If price breaks and closes below 143.880, we consider:
The demand was not institutional.
A deeper mitigation into the lower demand block near 142.100–141.800 may be required.
✅ Final Outlook
“USD/JPY has completed a sweep of liquidity and is now forming bullish internal structure. With macro favoring USD strength, and current order flow signaling institutional positioning, a long from 144.200 toward 146.280 is a high-probability setup — provided price protects the latest demand block.”
🔍 1. Context: Macro Fundamentals
BOJ (Bank of Japan) remains dovish, showing little intention of raising rates significantly.
USD strength continues due to sticky inflation and delayed rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Geopolitical risks and U.S. economic resilience further strengthen the dollar.
This macro backdrop supports bearish JPY bias, hence a long USD/JPY setup aligns with the fundamentals.
🧠 2. Structure and Liquidity Analysis
Price recently swept sell-side liquidity (marked by the dip into demand zone).
Strong bullish reaction from a demand block confirms interest from smart money.
The market has now printed a short-term higher low, signaling a possible intent to create a new leg up.
📌 3. Entry, Stop Loss, Target (SMC-Based)
✅ Entry:
At 144.180–144.250 (refinement inside the lower bullish reaccumulation zone).
This zone represents a mitigation of a lower imbalance and offers a favorable risk-reward long.
❌ Stop Loss:
Below 143.880, beneath the refined demand zone and last liquidity sweep — if broken, the bullish narrative is invalidated in this leg.
🎯 Target 1 (Partial):
145.400 — first major supply zone where prior imbalance sits and price previously reversed. Could see first reaction here.
🎯 Target 2 (Final TP):
146.280 – 146.400 — a higher timeframe buy-side liquidity pool and previous distribution origin.
Risk-to-reward is well-optimized at 1:4+, depending on execution precision.
🔄 4. Price Action Expectations
Price may retest the 144.200–144.250 zone (demand).
If order flow remains bullish, expect a clean break of internal high at 145.180.
Watch for reaction at 145.400, but holding partials for a liquidity run toward 146.280+ is justified.
📉 5. Invalidation Scenario
If price breaks and closes below 143.880, we consider:
The demand was not institutional.
A deeper mitigation into the lower demand block near 142.100–141.800 may be required.
✅ Final Outlook
“USD/JPY has completed a sweep of liquidity and is now forming bullish internal structure. With macro favoring USD strength, and current order flow signaling institutional positioning, a long from 144.200 toward 146.280 is a high-probability setup — provided price protects the latest demand block.”
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Looking for powerful AI trading signals? Visit ProSignal.ai and take your trading to the next level! or join our telegram channel at t.me/prosignalai
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.