Our initial trade of the week was a success no drawback. The currency pair has created a new level and is now in a testing zone that I view as either a possible reversal or continuation of a downtrend validated by the 4 hour and daily timeframes. My points of interaction.
Sell: Open and close below 142.579
Buy: Reversal at 142.579
Even though these are the points I'm interested keep in mind it is early in the week and there is a chance for consolidation so beware of overtrading.
Monday June 2nd Reports: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index)
For May of 2025 it reported at about 48.7% which indicates a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. Aprils was 49% So we are looking at a slower pace. The current prediction is 49.5%. This is the ninth consecutive month with the index below 50% which is below the neutral threshold of 50%.
New Orders decreased to 48.6% from 55.1%
Production: Slowed to 50.7% from 52.5%
Employment: Fell into contraction at 47.6% down from 50.3%
Prices: Accelerated to 62.4% the highest since June 2022, due to increased cost from tariffs
Supplier Deliveries: Slowed to 54.5% from 50.9%, indicating longer lead times
Inventories: Remained stable at 49.9%
Backlog of Orders: Contracted less at 46.8% compared to 44.9% (backlogs are still declining, but not as sharply)
The manufacturing sector is experiencing the initial operational impacts of the new administrations tariff policies, leading to increased prices and supply chain disruptions
How does this impact USD/JPY?
PMI below 50 signals economic weakness it signals contraction in the manufacturing sector.
This puts a cloud over the confidence in US economic strength and may lead traders to lower expectations for future fed rate hikes (or even expect cuts)
A lower PMI reduces investor confidence in US economy which cloud lead to a weaker dollar
This will result in a stronger yen (safe haven currency) against the us dollar
Pay attention to: Fed and BOJ monetary policy outlooks, geopolitical risk appetite, interest rate differentials, and upcoming US jobs data report
Sell: Open and close below 142.579
Buy: Reversal at 142.579
Even though these are the points I'm interested keep in mind it is early in the week and there is a chance for consolidation so beware of overtrading.
Monday June 2nd Reports: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index)
For May of 2025 it reported at about 48.7% which indicates a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. Aprils was 49% So we are looking at a slower pace. The current prediction is 49.5%. This is the ninth consecutive month with the index below 50% which is below the neutral threshold of 50%.
New Orders decreased to 48.6% from 55.1%
Production: Slowed to 50.7% from 52.5%
Employment: Fell into contraction at 47.6% down from 50.3%
Prices: Accelerated to 62.4% the highest since June 2022, due to increased cost from tariffs
Supplier Deliveries: Slowed to 54.5% from 50.9%, indicating longer lead times
Inventories: Remained stable at 49.9%
Backlog of Orders: Contracted less at 46.8% compared to 44.9% (backlogs are still declining, but not as sharply)
The manufacturing sector is experiencing the initial operational impacts of the new administrations tariff policies, leading to increased prices and supply chain disruptions
How does this impact USD/JPY?
PMI below 50 signals economic weakness it signals contraction in the manufacturing sector.
This puts a cloud over the confidence in US economic strength and may lead traders to lower expectations for future fed rate hikes (or even expect cuts)
A lower PMI reduces investor confidence in US economy which cloud lead to a weaker dollar
This will result in a stronger yen (safe haven currency) against the us dollar
Pay attention to: Fed and BOJ monetary policy outlooks, geopolitical risk appetite, interest rate differentials, and upcoming US jobs data report
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.