For USD/JPY at 144.11, weighing the daily range (139.58–148.65) and recent price action, I’d estimate roughly:
Slide below 139.58 first ~60%
Rally above 148.65 first ~40%
Reasoning
Range position: We’re in the upper half of a well-defined 139.58–148.65 band—mean regression favors a move back toward the lower boundary.
Failed rallies: Price has tried three times (Feb, Apr, May) to breach 148.65 and faltered, suggesting that resistance remains firm.
Momentum: Recent advances lack conviction—the daily candles are indecisive with wicks on both ends, hinting at exhaustion.
Bearish longer‐term tilt: From last summer’s high (~162), USD/JPY has carved lower highs, putting the overall bias slightly skewed to the downside until a clean break above 148.65.
Slide below 139.58 first ~60%
Rally above 148.65 first ~40%
Reasoning
Range position: We’re in the upper half of a well-defined 139.58–148.65 band—mean regression favors a move back toward the lower boundary.
Failed rallies: Price has tried three times (Feb, Apr, May) to breach 148.65 and faltered, suggesting that resistance remains firm.
Momentum: Recent advances lack conviction—the daily candles are indecisive with wicks on both ends, hinting at exhaustion.
Bearish longer‐term tilt: From last summer’s high (~162), USD/JPY has carved lower highs, putting the overall bias slightly skewed to the downside until a clean break above 148.65.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.