"At the 3.6% YoY, the ex-food reading was the highest since early 2023. The data supports her view that the risk of a Bank of Japan rate hike in July is underpriced by the market. Currently, investors only attach a 14% probability to such an outcome."
"A hike in July would certainly support the yen. It would also make it a little less expensive for Japanese holders to FX hedge their US assets. Those investors from a low interest rate region (i.e., Japan) tend to have lower hedge ratios on US assets."
"Clearly, a reduction in hedging costs would add to the current narrative that the global investor community wants to raise its dollar hedge ratios. We have a 140 year-end forecast for USD/JPY. But the risks are clearly skewed to the downside here."
"A hike in July would certainly support the yen. It would also make it a little less expensive for Japanese holders to FX hedge their US assets. Those investors from a low interest rate region (i.e., Japan) tend to have lower hedge ratios on US assets."
"Clearly, a reduction in hedging costs would add to the current narrative that the global investor community wants to raise its dollar hedge ratios. We have a 140 year-end forecast for USD/JPY. But the risks are clearly skewed to the downside here."
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.