🌍 Macro Outlook – Inflation in Focus This Week
USDJPY is entering a critical week with high-impact US economic releases, particularly inflation and retail sales data, which could strongly influence dollar momentum.
🔔 Key Events (GMT):
Tuesday (Jul 15)
– US Core CPI, CPI m/m, CPI y/y
– Empire State Manufacturing Index
Wednesday (Jul 16)
– US PPI (Core + Headline)
– UK CPI y/y
Thursday (Jul 17)
– US Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims
– GBP Labour Market Report
Friday (Jul 18)
– US Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations
⚠️ Higher-than-expected inflation could drive USDJPY toward fresh highs.
But if data cools or jobs data weakens, JPY strength may pull the pair back down sharply.
📊 Technical Analysis – H4 Smart Money Structure
🔻 SELL ZONE
147.800 – 148.000
SL: 148.300
Weekly high with strong liquidity
Diagonal resistance and BOS (Break of Structure) area
Rejection expected if CPI cools or yields drop
🟢 BUY REACTION ZONE
144.300 – 144.100
SL: 144.000
FVG + previous supply turned demand
Good for a bounce or short-term scalp
🟢 STRONG DEMAND ZONE
142.500 – 142.300
SL: 142.000
Aligned with trendline and structural low
Swing entry if price dumps post-news
🧠 Market Structure Insight:
USDJPY still trending upwards, but RSI divergence and liquidity sweep suggest correction is likely.
Price could form a lower high near 147.800 before retracing to deeper zones.
Key confluences align with macro data timing.
🎯 Trade Scenarios
🔹 Scenario 1 – Short Setup
Entry: 147.800–148.000
SL: 148.300
TP1: 146.000
TP2: 144.300
TP3: 142.300 (Open if USD weakens)
🔹 Scenario 2 – Reaction Buy
Entry: 144.300–144.100
SL: 144.000
TP1: 145.500
TP2: 146.700
TP3: Open
🔹 Scenario 3 – Swing Buy
Entry: 142.500–142.300
SL: 142.000
TP1: 144.000
TP2: 146.000
TP3: 147.800 (if trend resumes)
🔍 Key Price Levels to Watch
148.000 – Weekly Liquidity Zone
144.300 – Short-Term Support / Reaction
142.300 – Swing Buy Zone
📣 Analyst’s Note:
This week, USDJPY direction hinges on US inflation data.
A hot CPI print may push prices toward 148, while weak data could drive a deeper pullback to 144 or 142.
Trade smart, manage risk, and don’t chase breakouts before confirmation.
USDJPY is entering a critical week with high-impact US economic releases, particularly inflation and retail sales data, which could strongly influence dollar momentum.
🔔 Key Events (GMT):
Tuesday (Jul 15)
– US Core CPI, CPI m/m, CPI y/y
– Empire State Manufacturing Index
Wednesday (Jul 16)
– US PPI (Core + Headline)
– UK CPI y/y
Thursday (Jul 17)
– US Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims
– GBP Labour Market Report
Friday (Jul 18)
– US Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations
⚠️ Higher-than-expected inflation could drive USDJPY toward fresh highs.
But if data cools or jobs data weakens, JPY strength may pull the pair back down sharply.
📊 Technical Analysis – H4 Smart Money Structure
🔻 SELL ZONE
147.800 – 148.000
SL: 148.300
Weekly high with strong liquidity
Diagonal resistance and BOS (Break of Structure) area
Rejection expected if CPI cools or yields drop
🟢 BUY REACTION ZONE
144.300 – 144.100
SL: 144.000
FVG + previous supply turned demand
Good for a bounce or short-term scalp
🟢 STRONG DEMAND ZONE
142.500 – 142.300
SL: 142.000
Aligned with trendline and structural low
Swing entry if price dumps post-news
🧠 Market Structure Insight:
USDJPY still trending upwards, but RSI divergence and liquidity sweep suggest correction is likely.
Price could form a lower high near 147.800 before retracing to deeper zones.
Key confluences align with macro data timing.
🎯 Trade Scenarios
🔹 Scenario 1 – Short Setup
Entry: 147.800–148.000
SL: 148.300
TP1: 146.000
TP2: 144.300
TP3: 142.300 (Open if USD weakens)
🔹 Scenario 2 – Reaction Buy
Entry: 144.300–144.100
SL: 144.000
TP1: 145.500
TP2: 146.700
TP3: Open
🔹 Scenario 3 – Swing Buy
Entry: 142.500–142.300
SL: 142.000
TP1: 144.000
TP2: 146.000
TP3: 147.800 (if trend resumes)
🔍 Key Price Levels to Watch
148.000 – Weekly Liquidity Zone
144.300 – Short-Term Support / Reaction
142.300 – Swing Buy Zone
📣 Analyst’s Note:
This week, USDJPY direction hinges on US inflation data.
A hot CPI print may push prices toward 148, while weak data could drive a deeper pullback to 144 or 142.
Trade smart, manage risk, and don’t chase breakouts before confirmation.
🔱 Trade with Smart Money – ICT Concepts & Price Action
🔱 Latest Daily Plan – Updated with 4–6 Free Gold Signals Daily
Join now: t.me/+BT9z8lt4yJ01OGVl
🔱 Latest Daily Plan – Updated with 4–6 Free Gold Signals Daily
Join now: t.me/+BT9z8lt4yJ01OGVl
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🔱 Trade with Smart Money – ICT Concepts & Price Action
🔱 Latest Daily Plan – Updated with 4–6 Free Gold Signals Daily
Join now: t.me/+BT9z8lt4yJ01OGVl
🔱 Latest Daily Plan – Updated with 4–6 Free Gold Signals Daily
Join now: t.me/+BT9z8lt4yJ01OGVl
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.