Market next move

72

📊 Current Analysis Summary:

Pair: USD/JPY on the 1-hour timeframe.

Bias: Bullish breakout above a minor consolidation (highlighted box).

Target: Set higher, implying continuation of upward momentum.

Arrows: Show bullish path with a minor pullback, then a breakout continuation.



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❌ Disruptive Breakdown:

🔴 1. Fake Breakout Risk

Price is testing the upper bound of the consolidation box. If this breakout fails to hold, it could trap late buyers. A rejection back inside the box might trigger a bearish reversal—a textbook bull trap scenario.

🔴 2. Volume Divergence

Despite the green breakout candle, the volume spike is not aggressive enough. If volume fails to increase further, it may suggest exhaustion, not momentum. This divergence undermines the breakout’s credibility.

🔴 3. Fundamental Uncertainty

Several U.S.-related economic icons (e.g., high-impact news) are visible. A hawkish BoJ or weaker-than-expected U.S. data could sharply reverse USD strength, causing a retracement or dump back below 145.000.

🔴 4. Overextended Short-Term Move

The steep rise could signal near-term exhaustion. RSI or other momentum indicators (not shown here) likely suggest overbought conditions, increasing the probability of a cool-off retracement.

🔴 5. Liquidity Grab & Drop Setup

Price might poke just above the box (to trigger stop losses and attract breakout traders), then reverse aggressively downward—a liquidity sweep or stop-hunt move before the real direction emerges.

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