Hello, fellow traders! We've created a 2-scenario trade plan based on the most recent technical, macro, and trader sentiment using 4 hour charts - because we love you!
1. BULLISH SCENARIO — rebound from support
Price is oversold on the 4H RSI and nearing key support (146.4–147.0). Fed easing expectations are already priced in, so any upside surprise in U.S. data, or lack of follow-through selling, could trigger a corrective rally.
TRADE PLAN:
Entry: 146.40–147.00 (look for a 4H bullish candle or RSI divergence confirmation)
Stop: Below 146.00 (clear break under the next support cluster)
Target 1 (Partial trade plan): 147.80 (local resistance)
Target 2 (Full trade plan): 148.50 (Aug 12 high)
SUPPORT LEVELS:
Support 1: 146.40–147.00
Support 2: 146.00
RESISTANCE LEVELS:
Resistance 1: 147.80
Resistance 2: 148.50
RISK/REWARD: ~1:2 from midpoint entry (146.70), risking 70 pips for 140 pips potential.
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2. BEARISH SCENARIO — continuation lower
The pair remains in a short-term 4H downtrend after failing above 148.5. Softer U.S. CPI reinforced Fed cut odds, while Japan’s inflation remains >2% with a mildly hawkish BoJ bias — supportive for yen strength.
TRADE PLAN:
Entry: 147.80–148.00 (sell into a retest of broken support / 4H resistance)
Stop: Above 148.50 (invalidated if breakout above Aug 12 high)
Target 1 (Partial TP): 147.00 (intraday swing low area)
Target 2 (Full TP): 146.00 (deeper swing support)
RESISTANCE LEVELS:
Resistance 1: 147.80
Resistance 2: 148.50
SUPPORT LEVELS:
Support 1: 147.00
Support 2: 146.00
Support 3: 145.80
RISK/REWARD: ~1:2.5 from midpoint entry (147.90), risking 60 pips for 150 pips potential.
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PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT (based on our most current data)
Bearish case is slightly more probable near-term because macro backdrop favors JPY (BoJ gradually normalizing, U.S. rate cut expectations rising).
Price action still in 4H downswing with momentum (MACD) negative and resistance overhead. CFTC data shows yen longs reduced — less chance of a squeeze higher on short-covering. That said, oversold conditions mean bullish bounces are possible, but likely corrective rather than trend-changing unless U.S. data turns hawkish again.
We hope you found our analysis helpful and thank you for reading. Follow us here on TradingView for more up to date analysis. Happy trading!
__________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Our analysis is not 100% absolute. We are not responsible for any losses incurred. Please be sure to do your own research before investing or trading.
1. BULLISH SCENARIO — rebound from support
Price is oversold on the 4H RSI and nearing key support (146.4–147.0). Fed easing expectations are already priced in, so any upside surprise in U.S. data, or lack of follow-through selling, could trigger a corrective rally.
TRADE PLAN:
Entry: 146.40–147.00 (look for a 4H bullish candle or RSI divergence confirmation)
Stop: Below 146.00 (clear break under the next support cluster)
Target 1 (Partial trade plan): 147.80 (local resistance)
Target 2 (Full trade plan): 148.50 (Aug 12 high)
SUPPORT LEVELS:
Support 1: 146.40–147.00
Support 2: 146.00
RESISTANCE LEVELS:
Resistance 1: 147.80
Resistance 2: 148.50
RISK/REWARD: ~1:2 from midpoint entry (146.70), risking 70 pips for 140 pips potential.
__________________________________________________
2. BEARISH SCENARIO — continuation lower
The pair remains in a short-term 4H downtrend after failing above 148.5. Softer U.S. CPI reinforced Fed cut odds, while Japan’s inflation remains >2% with a mildly hawkish BoJ bias — supportive for yen strength.
TRADE PLAN:
Entry: 147.80–148.00 (sell into a retest of broken support / 4H resistance)
Stop: Above 148.50 (invalidated if breakout above Aug 12 high)
Target 1 (Partial TP): 147.00 (intraday swing low area)
Target 2 (Full TP): 146.00 (deeper swing support)
RESISTANCE LEVELS:
Resistance 1: 147.80
Resistance 2: 148.50
SUPPORT LEVELS:
Support 1: 147.00
Support 2: 146.00
Support 3: 145.80
RISK/REWARD: ~1:2.5 from midpoint entry (147.90), risking 60 pips for 150 pips potential.
_________________________________________
PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT (based on our most current data)
Bearish case is slightly more probable near-term because macro backdrop favors JPY (BoJ gradually normalizing, U.S. rate cut expectations rising).
Price action still in 4H downswing with momentum (MACD) negative and resistance overhead. CFTC data shows yen longs reduced — less chance of a squeeze higher on short-covering. That said, oversold conditions mean bullish bounces are possible, but likely corrective rather than trend-changing unless U.S. data turns hawkish again.
We hope you found our analysis helpful and thank you for reading. Follow us here on TradingView for more up to date analysis. Happy trading!
__________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Our analysis is not 100% absolute. We are not responsible for any losses incurred. Please be sure to do your own research before investing or trading.
Follow us for expert analysis! Check out our new YOUTUBE channel at Youtube.com/@Howto-Forex
And visit HOWTO.FOREX to pre-register to enroll in our Forex Ninja Bootcamp (using only your email address) - A bootcamp/mastermind for serious traders!
And visit HOWTO.FOREX to pre-register to enroll in our Forex Ninja Bootcamp (using only your email address) - A bootcamp/mastermind for serious traders!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Follow us for expert analysis! Check out our new YOUTUBE channel at Youtube.com/@Howto-Forex
And visit HOWTO.FOREX to pre-register to enroll in our Forex Ninja Bootcamp (using only your email address) - A bootcamp/mastermind for serious traders!
And visit HOWTO.FOREX to pre-register to enroll in our Forex Ninja Bootcamp (using only your email address) - A bootcamp/mastermind for serious traders!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.