Pros
REER based TRY undervaluation: 47%
National Bank stepped in to protect TRY
Key to this position: limited market volatility and risk-on sentiment
It is relatively expensive to short the TRY
Cons
Long-term fundamentals gloomy for Turkey
REER based TRY undervaluation: 47%
National Bank stepped in to protect TRY
Key to this position: limited market volatility and risk-on sentiment
It is relatively expensive to short the TRY
Cons
Long-term fundamentals gloomy for Turkey
Note
Tomorrows CBT interest rate decision critical risk-event. Market is pricing a hike of roughly 50-75 bps on average, anything below that means TRY under attack again.Note
Setup playing out well: Turkey announces a 125bp hike in the repo rate, thats more than expected, lira on the frontfootOrder cancelled
No positioned opened on this setup, very speculative, hard to build an edge on a market where Central Banks can intervene at any moment.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.