USDZMW seems to have reached what appears to be a major market top after completing a classic 5 wave Elliott impulse cycle on the monthly timeframe. This marks the end of a multi-decade bullish structure and signals the beginning of a corrective phase potentially reshaping Zambia’s FX landscape in the medium term.
Key Technical Insights:
The final Wave 5 peaked at 28.97, followed by a sharp decline to 23.90 (at the time of this publication).
A corrective ABC structure is now likely underway with fibonacci based downside targets around:
Target 1: $1 = K22.31 – minor correction (23.6%)
Target 2: $1 = K18.30 – medium correction (38.2%)
Target 3: $1 = K15.05 – deep retracement (50% of the main wave on monthly TF)
While various fundamentals, copper prices, debt restructuring and prevailing fiscal policies play a role, this technical setup suggests a strong medium to long term appreciation of the Kwacha is on the cards.
We may be witnessing the early stages of a multiyear FX shift.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes ONLY and does not constitute financial advice in any way. Market conditions are subject to change and all trading involves risk.
Key Technical Insights:
The final Wave 5 peaked at 28.97, followed by a sharp decline to 23.90 (at the time of this publication).
A corrective ABC structure is now likely underway with fibonacci based downside targets around:
Target 1: $1 = K22.31 – minor correction (23.6%)
Target 2: $1 = K18.30 – medium correction (38.2%)
Target 3: $1 = K15.05 – deep retracement (50% of the main wave on monthly TF)
While various fundamentals, copper prices, debt restructuring and prevailing fiscal policies play a role, this technical setup suggests a strong medium to long term appreciation of the Kwacha is on the cards.
We may be witnessing the early stages of a multiyear FX shift.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes ONLY and does not constitute financial advice in any way. Market conditions are subject to change and all trading involves risk.
Note
This is an update to the forecast that was made here:
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.