🛢 Crude Oil Technical Analysis (Weekly Structure & 2H Chart Confirmation)
Chart Reference: Based on your 2H chart, crude has completed an A-B corrective structure and is likely entering the impulsive C leg, which typically unfolds in 5 waves (I, II, III, IV, V).
🔍 Elliott Wave Interpretation
Wave A: Likely the initial leg down — corrective but strong.
Wave B: Completed near the recent top ~66.5–67 zone (acts as resistance).
Wave C: Beginning now; a clear impulse structure (5-wave down expected).
🟣 Wave Count Breakdown on 2H Chart
Wave I: Likely completed near 64.5 — key level to confirm downside continuation.
Wave II: Minor retracement to ~66.5 (double top zone).
Wave III: Expected to be sharp and impulsive — projected towards 60 zone.
Wave IV: Small pullback/retrace near 57.5–58.5.
Wave V: Final push down — projected to 52–54 range.
🎯 Key Price Levels
Level Significance
66.5–67.0 Wave B high / Resistance Zone
64.5 Breakdown Confirmation (Wave I Low)
60.0 First Major Support / Wave III end
55.0 Likely Wave V Extension area
52.0 Potential C-Wave Completion Zone
🧠 Observations & Trade Notes
If 64.5 breaks, the C-leg is active and impulsive selling should follow.
RSI/Momentum indicators (not shown) should confirm bearish divergence or breakdown if this analysis holds.
Wave III is usually the longest; hence, fast drop expected after 64.5 breach.
Keep an eye on volume spikes and wide-body red candles post-64.5 for entry triggers.
📉 Short-Term Trading Strategy
Below 64.5: Initiate short with SL above 66.7
Target 1: 60.2
Target 2: 55.3
Target 3: 52.0
SL Trail: Once below 60, trail SL above 62.
🛑 Risk Considerations
A strong close above 67.2 invalidates the current wave count and may call for re-evaluation (possibly extended Wave B or triangle).
📌 Conclusion
Crude has likely entered a Wave C downtrend which is impulsive in nature. A clean break below 64.5 confirms that Wave III is active, and targets of 60–52 remain valid. The structure aligns with a larger time frame correction. Strong caution is advised above 67.
📢 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or trading advice. Trading in commodities, stocks, futures, and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The author shall not be held responsible for any losses incurred from the use of this analysis.
Chart Reference: Based on your 2H chart, crude has completed an A-B corrective structure and is likely entering the impulsive C leg, which typically unfolds in 5 waves (I, II, III, IV, V).
🔍 Elliott Wave Interpretation
Wave A: Likely the initial leg down — corrective but strong.
Wave B: Completed near the recent top ~66.5–67 zone (acts as resistance).
Wave C: Beginning now; a clear impulse structure (5-wave down expected).
🟣 Wave Count Breakdown on 2H Chart
Wave I: Likely completed near 64.5 — key level to confirm downside continuation.
Wave II: Minor retracement to ~66.5 (double top zone).
Wave III: Expected to be sharp and impulsive — projected towards 60 zone.
Wave IV: Small pullback/retrace near 57.5–58.5.
Wave V: Final push down — projected to 52–54 range.
🎯 Key Price Levels
Level Significance
66.5–67.0 Wave B high / Resistance Zone
64.5 Breakdown Confirmation (Wave I Low)
60.0 First Major Support / Wave III end
55.0 Likely Wave V Extension area
52.0 Potential C-Wave Completion Zone
🧠 Observations & Trade Notes
If 64.5 breaks, the C-leg is active and impulsive selling should follow.
RSI/Momentum indicators (not shown) should confirm bearish divergence or breakdown if this analysis holds.
Wave III is usually the longest; hence, fast drop expected after 64.5 breach.
Keep an eye on volume spikes and wide-body red candles post-64.5 for entry triggers.
📉 Short-Term Trading Strategy
Below 64.5: Initiate short with SL above 66.7
Target 1: 60.2
Target 2: 55.3
Target 3: 52.0
SL Trail: Once below 60, trail SL above 62.
🛑 Risk Considerations
A strong close above 67.2 invalidates the current wave count and may call for re-evaluation (possibly extended Wave B or triangle).
📌 Conclusion
Crude has likely entered a Wave C downtrend which is impulsive in nature. A clean break below 64.5 confirms that Wave III is active, and targets of 60–52 remain valid. The structure aligns with a larger time frame correction. Strong caution is advised above 67.
📢 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or trading advice. Trading in commodities, stocks, futures, and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The author shall not be held responsible for any losses incurred from the use of this analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.