On Tuesday, oil prices fell by 6%, hitting a two-week low, as market expectations that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran would reduce the risk of supply disruptions in Middle Eastern oil. WTI crude oil fell below $64 per barrel intraday, eventually closing down 3.35% at $64.96 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 3.7% at $67.73 per barrel. With the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, the trading logic of the crude oil market will return to fundamentals. For now, the consumption peak season has hedged the pressure from OPEC+ production increases. Although U.S. crude oil demand has not shown eye-catching performance, OPEC+ production increases have also fallen short of expectations. In the later stage, attention needs to be paid to the geopolitical situation and the landing of OPEC+ production increases. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, factors such as continued OPEC+ production increases, weak demand, and supply surplus will still dominate oil price movements. The daily chart of crude oil closed with a bearish hammer line, in a two-day bearish pattern. After breaking the high, crude oil fell rapidly, indicating signs of the end of the oil price rally. Today, the focus is on whether the oil price continues to break down.
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