If we can close here it means we broke out significantly of the range .
As I was waiting for in my previous idea we needed to consolidate a little bit in this range - testing the upper and down trendlines before breaking higher :
RSI just tested back the 50 line and MACD looks like a "Kiss and goodbye". So it will not crossover just run higher after the touch.
If we say it was a consloidation and we break higher from this the measured target is at 63$.
On the 8$ way up to 63 there is 2 important resistance for us:
100 SMA - I don't it will hold for too long.
200 SMA - this will be an important resistance and the first daily cycle might top here.
On the other hand 64$ is also a multi month resistance , we will need some time before slicing through.
Target : 64$.
This idea was posted on the 01.02.2019. 12:50 EST
As I was waiting for in my previous idea we needed to consolidate a little bit in this range - testing the upper and down trendlines before breaking higher :
RSI just tested back the 50 line and MACD looks like a "Kiss and goodbye". So it will not crossover just run higher after the touch.
If we say it was a consloidation and we break higher from this the measured target is at 63$.
On the 8$ way up to 63 there is 2 important resistance for us:
100 SMA - I don't it will hold for too long.
200 SMA - this will be an important resistance and the first daily cycle might top here.
On the other hand 64$ is also a multi month resistance , we will need some time before slicing through.
Target : 64$.
This idea was posted on the 01.02.2019. 12:50 EST
Note
Notice that the breakout is significant : we are closing above the neckline. A good rally is coming.Note
Answering to the questions below...
We are on day 27. Oil cycles can run for 60+ and we might printed a multi year bottom on Christmas Eve. If it was a multi year low ( like 2016 Feb) the first daily cycle can be very strong . In 2016 price almost doubled. Now we are waiting for 50% “only” at 64$...
Watch this consolidation as a range. Thursday there was a false breakout. Friday(yesterday) significant breakout. I want to be in this breakout for sure.
Note
On the other hand RSI is diverging.It would be a concern on day 5+. But here on day 27 with that MACD it’s a buy for me.
Note
I'M a bit concerned that Trump calling a cycle top her with his tweet.There is nothing to worry about an economy collapse below 80$...
Note
We are back below the 100 SMA...Next step is an OPEC step...
Note
If oil goes down everything goes down, even the belowed S&P ...Here is the OIL and S&P chart together
Note
Today crude oil had the largest draw versus forecast since 2016.Better to skip Trump’s comments and let’s ride this bull till the 200 SMA (62-64$).
Note
Complete reversal erasing the twitter post’s drop:Note
I think we will break out today finally.
Note
A journey to 63 starting.Note
Breakout on the inventory report.
Trade closed manually
Day 64.My system sent me the warning that we are getting too late at this point.
One can always hope on the globe that the sun doesn't go down - it can happen on the north pole for a few days - but at the end the sunset comes.
We might tag the 200 SMA at the daily cycle top, but from day 64 in oil it's just a coin toss.
Taking profit on every oil trade :
US Crude MAY 2019
US Crude June 2019
XLE
ERX
and individual stocks too.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.