🔍 Overall Market Context:
The current USOIL structure is a great example of market shift from compression to expansion, characterized by a breakout of the Black Mind Curve followed by a measured impulse move. This chart is not just reacting technically, but it reflects how institutional smart money manipulates curves, breaks minor structures, and then retests zones to refill orders before continuing directionally.
Let’s break the market psychology and price action phase by phase:
🔄 Phase 1: Black Mind Curve Breakout ✅
The Black Mind Curve represents long-standing supply pressure that had been capping price.
Its breakout marks a shift in market intention, often signaling the end of a distribution phase and beginning of a possible accumulation or re-accumulation.
Price broke above this curve cleanly with strong bullish candles, which also broke minor structure levels, confirming short-term bullish sentiment.
The breakout was also backed by momentum and volume as the market pushed 130+ pips upward—an aggressive impulse that trapped late sellers below.
📉 Phase 2: Retracement to Interchange Zones
Now, we’re in the retracement phase, where price is pulling back toward:
🔹 SR Interchange Zone ($66.80 - $67.30)
This zone was previous resistance, now flipping to support.
In MMC terms, this area is expected to serve as a refill zone where smart money will look to accumulate again after the breakout.
We are watching for confirmation candles or MMC-style reversal patterns here (e.g., inside bar breakouts, demand imbalances).
🔹 Main Zone ($65.80 - $66.50)
If the first zone fails, this is the next key demand base.
It holds historical value from previous accumulation phases (see July 10–25) and aligns with the origin of the last impulse.
Expect a sharper wick or deeper liquidity grab if price moves into this area.
📉 Phase 3: Final Defensive Zone – Major Support ($63.70 - $65.20)
This zone marks the last line of bullish defense.
A move here would mean the bullish structure is being reevaluated or absorbed by sellers.
However, if price hits this level, it could also attract significant institutional demand, setting up for a more powerful long-term leg up.
Reactions here are typically large and volatile, with a risk of fakeouts and fast reversals.
📈 Possible Scenarios (MMC Based Forecasting):
✅ Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation (Primary Path)
Price finds support inside SR Interchange Zone.
Forms a base (MMC reversal structure) and pushes back to recent highs near $71.
Breakout above $71 opens room for next supply zones between $72.50 - $74.00.
⚠️ Scenario 2 – Deeper Liquidity Grab
Price breaks below SR Interchange and tests Main Zone for a deeper accumulation.
A wick or shakeout may happen before bullish continuation.
This trap zone could give the best R:R entry.
❌ Scenario 3 – Breakdown to Major Support
If both zones fail and bearish pressure sustains, price may revisit Major Support.
That would reset the bullish structure and require fresh MMC assessment.
🧠 MMC Logic at Work:
The curve break symbolizes the shift from supply dominance to a possible demand-led phase.
Minor structure breaks add fuel to trend shift and indicate participation from larger players.
Retracements are not weaknesses—they are refills for those who missed the move.
Smart money uses these zones and flips (SR interchanges) to hide in plain sight.
🎯 Key Takeaway for Traders:
This is a textbook MMC setup that combines:
Curve Breakout + Impulse
Zone Retest + Interchange Logic
Liquidity Engineering before Continuation
Traders should remain patient and observe reactions at each zone. Don’t chase—wait for the market to reveal its hand via MMC entry signals (break-of-structure, bullish engulfings, imbalance fills, etc.)
The current USOIL structure is a great example of market shift from compression to expansion, characterized by a breakout of the Black Mind Curve followed by a measured impulse move. This chart is not just reacting technically, but it reflects how institutional smart money manipulates curves, breaks minor structures, and then retests zones to refill orders before continuing directionally.
Let’s break the market psychology and price action phase by phase:
🔄 Phase 1: Black Mind Curve Breakout ✅
The Black Mind Curve represents long-standing supply pressure that had been capping price.
Its breakout marks a shift in market intention, often signaling the end of a distribution phase and beginning of a possible accumulation or re-accumulation.
Price broke above this curve cleanly with strong bullish candles, which also broke minor structure levels, confirming short-term bullish sentiment.
The breakout was also backed by momentum and volume as the market pushed 130+ pips upward—an aggressive impulse that trapped late sellers below.
📉 Phase 2: Retracement to Interchange Zones
Now, we’re in the retracement phase, where price is pulling back toward:
🔹 SR Interchange Zone ($66.80 - $67.30)
This zone was previous resistance, now flipping to support.
In MMC terms, this area is expected to serve as a refill zone where smart money will look to accumulate again after the breakout.
We are watching for confirmation candles or MMC-style reversal patterns here (e.g., inside bar breakouts, demand imbalances).
🔹 Main Zone ($65.80 - $66.50)
If the first zone fails, this is the next key demand base.
It holds historical value from previous accumulation phases (see July 10–25) and aligns with the origin of the last impulse.
Expect a sharper wick or deeper liquidity grab if price moves into this area.
📉 Phase 3: Final Defensive Zone – Major Support ($63.70 - $65.20)
This zone marks the last line of bullish defense.
A move here would mean the bullish structure is being reevaluated or absorbed by sellers.
However, if price hits this level, it could also attract significant institutional demand, setting up for a more powerful long-term leg up.
Reactions here are typically large and volatile, with a risk of fakeouts and fast reversals.
📈 Possible Scenarios (MMC Based Forecasting):
✅ Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation (Primary Path)
Price finds support inside SR Interchange Zone.
Forms a base (MMC reversal structure) and pushes back to recent highs near $71.
Breakout above $71 opens room for next supply zones between $72.50 - $74.00.
⚠️ Scenario 2 – Deeper Liquidity Grab
Price breaks below SR Interchange and tests Main Zone for a deeper accumulation.
A wick or shakeout may happen before bullish continuation.
This trap zone could give the best R:R entry.
❌ Scenario 3 – Breakdown to Major Support
If both zones fail and bearish pressure sustains, price may revisit Major Support.
That would reset the bullish structure and require fresh MMC assessment.
🧠 MMC Logic at Work:
The curve break symbolizes the shift from supply dominance to a possible demand-led phase.
Minor structure breaks add fuel to trend shift and indicate participation from larger players.
Retracements are not weaknesses—they are refills for those who missed the move.
Smart money uses these zones and flips (SR interchanges) to hide in plain sight.
🎯 Key Takeaway for Traders:
This is a textbook MMC setup that combines:
Curve Breakout + Impulse
Zone Retest + Interchange Logic
Liquidity Engineering before Continuation
Traders should remain patient and observe reactions at each zone. Don’t chase—wait for the market to reveal its hand via MMC entry signals (break-of-structure, bullish engulfings, imbalance fills, etc.)
For Daily Trade Setups and Forecast: 📈 t.me/xauusdoptimizer
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
For Daily Trade Setups and Forecast: 📈 t.me/xauusdoptimizer
Premium Signals Fr33: 💯 t.me/xauusdoptimizer
🥰🥳🤩
Premium Signals Fr33: 💯 t.me/xauusdoptimizer
🥰🥳🤩
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.