$UVXY target still +$100, different path to get there
We've seen an incredibly large rally in stocks, which has taken UVXY lower than I expected, but as long as we bounce at support here, the idea is still valid.
The support on the chart is retesting the move that we broke out from end of March. There was a lack of balance on the chart as we saw a 130% move over a 5 day period. So we're going back to retest that region.
I think once we retest the region we broke out from, we'll base for a few days and then start the last leg higher. I think this is going to be the biggest move yet and this move will get us to break the lows in SPY. I'm looking for $437-441 to mark the low in the market with an extreme low at $400.
I think VIX will see new highs and UVXY will go to $100+ with the resistance targets on the chart.
Not sure what the catalyst will end up being for this one, but all of the positive news around tariffs seem to be priced in after today.
Most of my UVXY options are stacked from 6/6-6/20 as I think we'll see this move play out by then.
Let's see what happens.
The support on the chart is retesting the move that we broke out from end of March. There was a lack of balance on the chart as we saw a 130% move over a 5 day period. So we're going back to retest that region.
I think once we retest the region we broke out from, we'll base for a few days and then start the last leg higher. I think this is going to be the biggest move yet and this move will get us to break the lows in SPY. I'm looking for $437-441 to mark the low in the market with an extreme low at $400.
I think VIX will see new highs and UVXY will go to $100+ with the resistance targets on the chart.
Not sure what the catalyst will end up being for this one, but all of the positive news around tariffs seem to be priced in after today.
Most of my UVXY options are stacked from 6/6-6/20 as I think we'll see this move play out by then.
Let's see what happens.
Note
Even though we broke through support, we go higher. Doesn't invalidate the idea. Everything I see indicates a big vol move is coming.Note
Got a strong 1D buy signal on the chart today. The last time we had a signal on the 1D, was the sell signal at $50. Should see a move start within the next few days.Trade active
Fully loaded on calls for 6/20, 7/18. Let's see where we end up going.Note
Bottom looking in now. Added more for 7/18, 8/15.Note
Okay, finally looking like the move has started. Sorry for being early to this. Let's see how high we go. My target is $106, but will post when I exit as I'm not 100% sure we make it up that high. It's extremely rare to get a move like that. Only other one has been covid, but that's the base case of this trade-- we have a liquidation of 30-40% magnitude in SPY that's sharper than covid.Margin debt is the highest in history and if we see an unexpected move, people will be forced out of positions at a really fast rate.
I have $22, $30, $40, 45C for 8/15 and I'll be scaling out as we move up. Bought a sizable chunk yesterday morning and more today.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.