8/20/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
VIPS
sub $12.. things that go "hrm"
- tough to own any chinese stonks, i get it.
BABA is arguably the cheapest biggest non-US moat on the planet and has a nice AI story too that is worth peanuts
- i've owned russian assets when the USSA rendered them zeros. i get the risk we face here with election upon us
- also understand these results (notably the guide) wasn't great. but the stock is/ was partially and also incorporating this
- i also don't proclaim to know the catalyst here. this is always risky if you don't size/ risk manage.
- but from a LT perspective, idk how you can look at something that does 2 bn in free cash flow and worth 4-5 bn (and by the way growing in one of the largest e-comm mkts with a nearly 20% market share and doing well in the off-brand category) and say "nah".
- there's always downside. cheap things can get cheaper especially in today's mkt of finding life boats in a world of fastest growing assets (growth is the only scarcity, esp profitable growth *ahem* nvda as king and will remain as such).
- but 3x (cash adjusted) PE, 40-50% fcf yield. i'd say you're not taking a massive risk here as a small LT set and forget punt. looked at options but given the election, the fact i can only go until Jan 2025 and premiums are high on a day like today, i'd probably only consider them if we get a further risk off move closer to the $10 zone and especially below.
- i'm in for 50 bps starter here. idea is a longer-term position and possibly grow it. like the entry is the tl;dr
- take a look. what am i missing?
V
VIPSsub $12.. things that go "hrm"
- tough to own any chinese stonks, i get it.
BABA is arguably the cheapest biggest non-US moat on the planet and has a nice AI story too that is worth peanuts- i've owned russian assets when the USSA rendered them zeros. i get the risk we face here with election upon us
- also understand these results (notably the guide) wasn't great. but the stock is/ was partially and also incorporating this
- i also don't proclaim to know the catalyst here. this is always risky if you don't size/ risk manage.
- but from a LT perspective, idk how you can look at something that does 2 bn in free cash flow and worth 4-5 bn (and by the way growing in one of the largest e-comm mkts with a nearly 20% market share and doing well in the off-brand category) and say "nah".
- there's always downside. cheap things can get cheaper especially in today's mkt of finding life boats in a world of fastest growing assets (growth is the only scarcity, esp profitable growth *ahem* nvda as king and will remain as such).
- but 3x (cash adjusted) PE, 40-50% fcf yield. i'd say you're not taking a massive risk here as a small LT set and forget punt. looked at options but given the election, the fact i can only go until Jan 2025 and premiums are high on a day like today, i'd probably only consider them if we get a further risk off move closer to the $10 zone and especially below.
- i'm in for 50 bps starter here. idea is a longer-term position and possibly grow it. like the entry is the tl;dr
- take a look. what am i missing?
V
Note
taking half off the table here w/ stonk +9.5% on the day to $12.7. a full $1 move looks like a healthy retracement. happy to keep my meme stake at this pt, but i genuinely don't like little positions so will figure out what to do, perhaps if we get a follow up move tmr i'll clear out of it. think the stock is probably worth $15 all else equal, but in this tape idk if i want to FAFO and get yandex'd - which the USSA still marks at zero in my portfolio. i suspect that's half the reason this trades so absurdly cheap.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.