Why does a small uptick matter today… if we’ve already seen 60+ readings four times in the past 17 years?
The first week of August 2025 brought back a familiar market force: volatility.
The VIX, which tracks expected fluctuations in the S&P 500, jumped 21% in just a few days, rising from 17.4 to 20.37, with an intraday high of 21.9 on August 1.
At first glance, the move may seem minor. But it broke through key long-term moving averages (SMA 50 and 200) and exited its recent comfort zone (14–19 pts). That alone is enough to make portfolio managers and traders pay attention again.
🔙 Historical context: when the VIX truly spiked
📅 Date 🔺 VIX intraday 🧨 Trigger
Oct 1, 2008 96.40 Subprime mortgage crisis, Lehman collapse, AIG bailout
Mar 2, 2020 85.47 COVID-19 global spread, border shutdowns
Aug 5, 2024 65.73 Surprise Fed rate hike + overheated jobs data
Apr 7, 2025 60.13 Panic over new U.S. tariffs on global partners
Compared to those moments, today's VIX levels look “mild.” But the technical and macroeconomic signals suggest that volatility may be establishing a new baseline.
1. 📊 Breakdown: First week of August 2025
Weekly increase: from 17.4 → 20.37 (+21%).
Technical breakout: monthly close above both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA 19.25 and 19.45).
MACD on the monthly chart has flipped positive for the first time since March 2023.
Key drivers:
🏛️ The Fed left interest rates unchanged on July 30, but two dissenting votes favored a rate cut.
👷♂️ Softening jobs data: July NFP came in at only +73,000 jobs (vs. +110,000 expected).
🧾 New U.S. tariffs, announced on August 1, reignited inflation concerns.
2. ⚖️ Comparing August 2025 to the August 2024 storm
Factor August 2024 August 2025 (Week 1)
🔺 VIX peak 65.73 21.9
🏛️ Fed stance Surprise 25 bp rate hike Rates unchanged, internal division
👷 Labor market Hot, wage pressures Cooling down
📉 S&P 500 reaction −12% in 3 weeks Approx. −3% decline underway
💧 Market liquidity Very low (pre-market) Normal
Conclusion:
2024 was a systemic shock.
2025 is more of a volatility warning sign—but one that matters for risk management.
3. 📍 Technical signals to monitor
The monthly MACD just turned positive, which historically precedes sustained volatility spikes.
Key short-term range: 18–22 pts. A sustained close above 22 could trigger heavy selling in high-beta stocks.
Options expiration (OPEX, Aug 16) may amplify moves via gamma flows.
4. 🔮 What could move the VIX next?
📅 Date 📌 Event ⚠️ Volatility Risk
Aug 14 Core CPI (July) Reading above 0.3% m/m could reignite hawkish Fed bets
Aug 22–23 Jackson Hole Symposium Powell’s speech could reset the policy outlook
End of Aug Q2 GDP revision Confirm whether slowdown = soft landing or stagflation
📌 Note: The VIX cannot be traded directly. Exposure is typically obtained through futures, options, or ETNs—each with specific risks like contango, low liquidity, and roll decay.
📌 Final thoughts
The VIX doesn’t need to hit 60 to send a message.
The fact that it’s breaking above long-term averages, reacting sharply to macro data, and threatening key levels is enough to suggest that the era of ultra-low volatility may be ending.
History shows us that major VIX spikes come fast and unannounced.
If you remember 2008, 2020, or even April 2025—you know that preparation beats prediction.
The first week of August 2025 brought back a familiar market force: volatility.
The VIX, which tracks expected fluctuations in the S&P 500, jumped 21% in just a few days, rising from 17.4 to 20.37, with an intraday high of 21.9 on August 1.
At first glance, the move may seem minor. But it broke through key long-term moving averages (SMA 50 and 200) and exited its recent comfort zone (14–19 pts). That alone is enough to make portfolio managers and traders pay attention again.
🔙 Historical context: when the VIX truly spiked
📅 Date 🔺 VIX intraday 🧨 Trigger
Oct 1, 2008 96.40 Subprime mortgage crisis, Lehman collapse, AIG bailout
Mar 2, 2020 85.47 COVID-19 global spread, border shutdowns
Aug 5, 2024 65.73 Surprise Fed rate hike + overheated jobs data
Apr 7, 2025 60.13 Panic over new U.S. tariffs on global partners
Compared to those moments, today's VIX levels look “mild.” But the technical and macroeconomic signals suggest that volatility may be establishing a new baseline.
1. 📊 Breakdown: First week of August 2025
Weekly increase: from 17.4 → 20.37 (+21%).
Technical breakout: monthly close above both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA 19.25 and 19.45).
MACD on the monthly chart has flipped positive for the first time since March 2023.
Key drivers:
🏛️ The Fed left interest rates unchanged on July 30, but two dissenting votes favored a rate cut.
👷♂️ Softening jobs data: July NFP came in at only +73,000 jobs (vs. +110,000 expected).
🧾 New U.S. tariffs, announced on August 1, reignited inflation concerns.
2. ⚖️ Comparing August 2025 to the August 2024 storm
Factor August 2024 August 2025 (Week 1)
🔺 VIX peak 65.73 21.9
🏛️ Fed stance Surprise 25 bp rate hike Rates unchanged, internal division
👷 Labor market Hot, wage pressures Cooling down
📉 S&P 500 reaction −12% in 3 weeks Approx. −3% decline underway
💧 Market liquidity Very low (pre-market) Normal
Conclusion:
2024 was a systemic shock.
2025 is more of a volatility warning sign—but one that matters for risk management.
3. 📍 Technical signals to monitor
The monthly MACD just turned positive, which historically precedes sustained volatility spikes.
Key short-term range: 18–22 pts. A sustained close above 22 could trigger heavy selling in high-beta stocks.
Options expiration (OPEX, Aug 16) may amplify moves via gamma flows.
4. 🔮 What could move the VIX next?
📅 Date 📌 Event ⚠️ Volatility Risk
Aug 14 Core CPI (July) Reading above 0.3% m/m could reignite hawkish Fed bets
Aug 22–23 Jackson Hole Symposium Powell’s speech could reset the policy outlook
End of Aug Q2 GDP revision Confirm whether slowdown = soft landing or stagflation
📌 Note: The VIX cannot be traded directly. Exposure is typically obtained through futures, options, or ETNs—each with specific risks like contango, low liquidity, and roll decay.
📌 Final thoughts
The VIX doesn’t need to hit 60 to send a message.
The fact that it’s breaking above long-term averages, reacting sharply to macro data, and threatening key levels is enough to suggest that the era of ultra-low volatility may be ending.
History shows us that major VIX spikes come fast and unannounced.
If you remember 2008, 2020, or even April 2025—you know that preparation beats prediction.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.