Trump Grants Three-Week Tariff Reprieve
President Trump has extended the pause on sweeping reciprocal tariffs from July 9 to August 1, providing critical breathing room for US trading partners to negotiate. While this delay briefly steadied sentiment, his renewed threats — specifically a 25% tariff on Japan and South Korea — have reignited global trade fears.
S&P 500 fell 0.9% after the announcement, Nasdaq dropped 0.8%, and the Dow retreated similarly.
Japanese yen and Korean won weakened 1.1% against the USD, underscoring capital flight and potential export growth fears.
Analysts expect continued volatility, but ING suggests the fallout should not match April’s sharp correction when tariffs first roiled markets.
Ukraine Reshuffle: Diplomatic Realignment
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy agreed to replace Ambassador Markarova after criticism from Republicans about her close ties to Democrats. The reshuffle is framed as an effort to "appease" Trump amid paused US arms deliveries.
Zelenskyy also plans to restructure his cabinet next week, emphasizing consolidation of control by his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak.
Potential ambassador candidates include Prime Minister Shmyhal and senior ministers, signaling strategic alignment with US interests.
Russian Transport Minister’s Apparent Suicide
Russia's transport minister, Roman Starovoyt, was found dead in a suspected suicide after his dismissal by President Putin amid a corruption probe.
The case highlights severe internal pressures and the Kremlin’s tightening control.
The Kursk region scandal has drawn public criticism over failed defense construction during Ukraine’s advances.
Germany’s AfD Attempts Image Moderation
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party introduced a new code of conduct to improve its parliamentary image and broaden voter appeal.
With AfD declared a right-wing extremist group by domestic intelligence, any moderation effort reflects broader attempts to legitimize and normalize extremist platforms before 2029 elections.
China-EU Climate Standoff
The EU declined China’s push for a joint climate declaration ahead of Xi–von der Leyen meetings. Brussels demands firmer emission reduction commitments, reflecting tensions around trade and Russia policy.
The EU proposed a 90% emission reduction by 2040 but faces pushback internally amid fears of economic competitiveness loss.
China remains the world’s largest emitter, and the EU is wary of soft pledges lacking concrete policy changes.
LG Energy Solution Surges on Biden Tax Incentives
LGES posted a 152% YoY surge in Q2 operating profit (₩492bn), defying lower EV demand, largely due to advanced manufacturing tax credits from the US Inflation Reduction Act.
Despite falling sales (-9.7% YoY), early front-loading by automakers helped offset volume risks.
Trump’s new budget plan scraps consumer EV credits but retains production incentives to 2032, which supports battery manufacturers like LGES but may soften downstream demand.
Royal Gold’s $3.7bn Acquisitions Signal Gold M&A Wave
Royal Gold is acquiring Sandstorm Gold and Horizon Copper, expanding its portfolio to 80 producing assets and 266 exploration-stage properties.
Gold’s price strength has fueled an "animal spirits" surge in mining M&A.
Royal Gold’s market cap is projected to rise to ~$15.4bn, reinforcing its position as the only US-based large-cap pure gold streaming and royalty company.
Sibanye-Stillwater Calls for Western Price Support
CEO Neal Froneman advocated for price guarantees on critical minerals to offset Chinese competitive advantages.
He warned that de-globalization trends require Western miners to receive direct support to stay viable.
Sibanye’s expansion into lithium and nickel (Finland and France) reflects the shift to battery metals, but profitability is challenged by higher capital costs and lower platinum/palladium prices.
BP Strengthens Board with Ex-Shell CFO
Simon Henry joins BP’s board to bolster oil & gas expertise amid renewed investor pressure and possible takeover speculation.
BP recently pivoted back to traditional hydrocarbons after Elliott Management took a large stake and pushed for strategic shifts.
BP’s shares have lagged peers, making governance and board composition critical to fend off activist threats.
------------
US Equity Market Sector Trends
From your dashboards:
Utilities (+0.21%) and Staples (+0.07%) were the only positive sectors, highlighting defensive repositioning.
Tech (-0.73%), Discretionary (-1.27%), and Communications (-0.96%) led the declines, reflecting tariff fears and profit-taking in high-beta growth stocks.
Industrials (-0.52%) and Materials (-0.88%) were under pressure, signaling investor concerns over input costs and global demand.
Factors and Style Performance
Low volatility (+0.41%) and momentum (+0.41%) factors outperformed, indicating a flight to stability.
Small caps underperformed sharply (down ~1%), reflecting their greater sensitivity to domestic and policy risks.
Value and high dividend yield factors were slightly negative, reinforcing cautious sentiment.
Currency and Rates Moves
US dollar gained 0.2% against a basket of major currencies, driven by safe haven flows.
EUR/USD slipped 0.5%, and GBP/USD declined 0.3%.
USD/JPY climbed, reflecting yen weakness.
US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.39% (+0.05 pp), signaling investor rotation from bonds to cash amid tariff fears.
Global yields mostly edged higher; UK 10-year gilt rose to 4.59%.
Commodities
Gold slipped slightly (-0.1%), despite general risk-off sentiment, reflecting dollar strength and potential profit-taking after recent highs.
Crude oil gained ~1.7% (WTI at $67.97), supported by geopolitical tension and potential supply disruptions.
Industrial metals broadly fell, notably copper (-2.4%), due to China rerouting exports and tariff concerns.
Agricultural commodities showed mixed performance; soybeans and wheat fell (~-2.4%), reflecting improved harvest outlooks.
Global Equity Markets & Country ETFs
European equities showed resilience: DAX +1.2%, CAC 40 +0.4%.
Asia-Pacific mixed: Nikkei -0.8%, China slightly positive, reflecting capital reallocation and local policy adjustments.
Emerging markets underperformed slightly (MSCI EM down ~1.4%), as USD strength pressured flows.
Notably strong YTD performers include Brazil (+16%) and Mexico (+13%), while China and Japan remain subdued.
Fixed Income and Credit Conditions
US fixed income ETFs mostly red; long-duration Treasuries (20+ years) underperformed sharply (-1.0%), reflecting rate sensitivity.
High-yield spreads narrowed slightly, but issuance remains cautious given tariff-related macro risks.
Municipal bonds and short-term corporates showed slight positive performance, reflecting defensive rotation.
Macro Themes & Outlook
Trade Policy Risks Intensify: Extension to August 1 provides temporary relief but does not remove risk. Markets fear escalation with Japan, South Korea, and potentially the EU.
Rotation to Defensives: Investors shifted into utilities, staples, and low-volatility plays, anticipating higher volatility and lower global growth.
Dollar Strength & Rate Adjustments: Strength in USD and higher yields could challenge risk assets, especially in emerging markets.
Commodity Divergence: Energy remains firm on geopolitical concerns; metals weak amid China rerouting and uncertain demand.
Corporate Actions and M&A: Gold sector consolidations continue (e.g., Royal Gold’s $3.7bn acquisitions), indicating bullishness in precious metals, contrasting weakness in industrials and agriculture.
Conclusion & Strategy View
In the near term, we expect continued volatility around August 1 as the tariff deadline nears. Defensive positioning remains prudent, favoring cash, high-quality bonds, and low-volatility equities. For commodities, energy and precious metals are relatively better supported, while industrial metals and agriculture face demand and trade headwinds.
Currency-wise, the USD strength may persist, pressuring EM assets and riskier FX pairs.
We recommend closely monitoring further White House communications and bilateral trade talks, particularly involving Japan and South Korea, to reassess global risk exposure and sector allocations.
President Trump has extended the pause on sweeping reciprocal tariffs from July 9 to August 1, providing critical breathing room for US trading partners to negotiate. While this delay briefly steadied sentiment, his renewed threats — specifically a 25% tariff on Japan and South Korea — have reignited global trade fears.
S&P 500 fell 0.9% after the announcement, Nasdaq dropped 0.8%, and the Dow retreated similarly.
Japanese yen and Korean won weakened 1.1% against the USD, underscoring capital flight and potential export growth fears.
Analysts expect continued volatility, but ING suggests the fallout should not match April’s sharp correction when tariffs first roiled markets.
Ukraine Reshuffle: Diplomatic Realignment
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy agreed to replace Ambassador Markarova after criticism from Republicans about her close ties to Democrats. The reshuffle is framed as an effort to "appease" Trump amid paused US arms deliveries.
Zelenskyy also plans to restructure his cabinet next week, emphasizing consolidation of control by his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak.
Potential ambassador candidates include Prime Minister Shmyhal and senior ministers, signaling strategic alignment with US interests.
Russian Transport Minister’s Apparent Suicide
Russia's transport minister, Roman Starovoyt, was found dead in a suspected suicide after his dismissal by President Putin amid a corruption probe.
The case highlights severe internal pressures and the Kremlin’s tightening control.
The Kursk region scandal has drawn public criticism over failed defense construction during Ukraine’s advances.
Germany’s AfD Attempts Image Moderation
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party introduced a new code of conduct to improve its parliamentary image and broaden voter appeal.
With AfD declared a right-wing extremist group by domestic intelligence, any moderation effort reflects broader attempts to legitimize and normalize extremist platforms before 2029 elections.
China-EU Climate Standoff
The EU declined China’s push for a joint climate declaration ahead of Xi–von der Leyen meetings. Brussels demands firmer emission reduction commitments, reflecting tensions around trade and Russia policy.
The EU proposed a 90% emission reduction by 2040 but faces pushback internally amid fears of economic competitiveness loss.
China remains the world’s largest emitter, and the EU is wary of soft pledges lacking concrete policy changes.
LG Energy Solution Surges on Biden Tax Incentives
LGES posted a 152% YoY surge in Q2 operating profit (₩492bn), defying lower EV demand, largely due to advanced manufacturing tax credits from the US Inflation Reduction Act.
Despite falling sales (-9.7% YoY), early front-loading by automakers helped offset volume risks.
Trump’s new budget plan scraps consumer EV credits but retains production incentives to 2032, which supports battery manufacturers like LGES but may soften downstream demand.
Royal Gold’s $3.7bn Acquisitions Signal Gold M&A Wave
Royal Gold is acquiring Sandstorm Gold and Horizon Copper, expanding its portfolio to 80 producing assets and 266 exploration-stage properties.
Gold’s price strength has fueled an "animal spirits" surge in mining M&A.
Royal Gold’s market cap is projected to rise to ~$15.4bn, reinforcing its position as the only US-based large-cap pure gold streaming and royalty company.
Sibanye-Stillwater Calls for Western Price Support
CEO Neal Froneman advocated for price guarantees on critical minerals to offset Chinese competitive advantages.
He warned that de-globalization trends require Western miners to receive direct support to stay viable.
Sibanye’s expansion into lithium and nickel (Finland and France) reflects the shift to battery metals, but profitability is challenged by higher capital costs and lower platinum/palladium prices.
BP Strengthens Board with Ex-Shell CFO
Simon Henry joins BP’s board to bolster oil & gas expertise amid renewed investor pressure and possible takeover speculation.
BP recently pivoted back to traditional hydrocarbons after Elliott Management took a large stake and pushed for strategic shifts.
BP’s shares have lagged peers, making governance and board composition critical to fend off activist threats.
------------
US Equity Market Sector Trends
From your dashboards:
Utilities (+0.21%) and Staples (+0.07%) were the only positive sectors, highlighting defensive repositioning.
Tech (-0.73%), Discretionary (-1.27%), and Communications (-0.96%) led the declines, reflecting tariff fears and profit-taking in high-beta growth stocks.
Industrials (-0.52%) and Materials (-0.88%) were under pressure, signaling investor concerns over input costs and global demand.
Factors and Style Performance
Low volatility (+0.41%) and momentum (+0.41%) factors outperformed, indicating a flight to stability.
Small caps underperformed sharply (down ~1%), reflecting their greater sensitivity to domestic and policy risks.
Value and high dividend yield factors were slightly negative, reinforcing cautious sentiment.
Currency and Rates Moves
US dollar gained 0.2% against a basket of major currencies, driven by safe haven flows.
EUR/USD slipped 0.5%, and GBP/USD declined 0.3%.
USD/JPY climbed, reflecting yen weakness.
US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.39% (+0.05 pp), signaling investor rotation from bonds to cash amid tariff fears.
Global yields mostly edged higher; UK 10-year gilt rose to 4.59%.
Commodities
Gold slipped slightly (-0.1%), despite general risk-off sentiment, reflecting dollar strength and potential profit-taking after recent highs.
Crude oil gained ~1.7% (WTI at $67.97), supported by geopolitical tension and potential supply disruptions.
Industrial metals broadly fell, notably copper (-2.4%), due to China rerouting exports and tariff concerns.
Agricultural commodities showed mixed performance; soybeans and wheat fell (~-2.4%), reflecting improved harvest outlooks.
Global Equity Markets & Country ETFs
European equities showed resilience: DAX +1.2%, CAC 40 +0.4%.
Asia-Pacific mixed: Nikkei -0.8%, China slightly positive, reflecting capital reallocation and local policy adjustments.
Emerging markets underperformed slightly (MSCI EM down ~1.4%), as USD strength pressured flows.
Notably strong YTD performers include Brazil (+16%) and Mexico (+13%), while China and Japan remain subdued.
Fixed Income and Credit Conditions
US fixed income ETFs mostly red; long-duration Treasuries (20+ years) underperformed sharply (-1.0%), reflecting rate sensitivity.
High-yield spreads narrowed slightly, but issuance remains cautious given tariff-related macro risks.
Municipal bonds and short-term corporates showed slight positive performance, reflecting defensive rotation.
Macro Themes & Outlook
Trade Policy Risks Intensify: Extension to August 1 provides temporary relief but does not remove risk. Markets fear escalation with Japan, South Korea, and potentially the EU.
Rotation to Defensives: Investors shifted into utilities, staples, and low-volatility plays, anticipating higher volatility and lower global growth.
Dollar Strength & Rate Adjustments: Strength in USD and higher yields could challenge risk assets, especially in emerging markets.
Commodity Divergence: Energy remains firm on geopolitical concerns; metals weak amid China rerouting and uncertain demand.
Corporate Actions and M&A: Gold sector consolidations continue (e.g., Royal Gold’s $3.7bn acquisitions), indicating bullishness in precious metals, contrasting weakness in industrials and agriculture.
Conclusion & Strategy View
In the near term, we expect continued volatility around August 1 as the tariff deadline nears. Defensive positioning remains prudent, favoring cash, high-quality bonds, and low-volatility equities. For commodities, energy and precious metals are relatively better supported, while industrial metals and agriculture face demand and trade headwinds.
Currency-wise, the USD strength may persist, pressuring EM assets and riskier FX pairs.
We recommend closely monitoring further White House communications and bilateral trade talks, particularly involving Japan and South Korea, to reassess global risk exposure and sector allocations.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.