🎯 XAUUSD 1H – Anticipating the Upside Fakeout Before the Real Drop
📉 Trade Breakdown:
Gold is consolidating just beneath a 1H supply zone (3344–3356), forming the classic structure for a liquidity trap. The expectation: price fakes out to the upside, taps the supply zone, and then reverses with a clean bearish move toward 3207. This isn’t just a technical setup — it’s fundamentally fueled by a blowout NFP report.
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📍 Key Technical Confluences:
• 🔸 1H supply zone: 3344–3356 (clean bearish reaction)
• 🔸 Consolidation beneath supply = energy buildup
• 🔸 Likely upside fakeout into supply → then rejection
• 🔸 Equal lows + inefficiency below = target-rich zone
• 🔸 3207 = next major demand / clean target
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📰 Fundamental Fuel:
• 🔹 NFP came in strong (206K vs. expected ~190K)
• 🔹 Dollar surged, yields rebounded → gold dropped
• 🔹 Rate cut hopes fading = bullish for USD, bearish for XAU/USD
• 🔹 Market is now adjusting expectations → selling gold aggressively
• 🔹 Gold already fell post-NFP, but this pullback into supply gives sellers a second entry
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📈 Execution Plan:
• Entry: After upside sweep into 3344–3356 with M15–H1 rejection
• Stop Loss: Above 3356 (supply invalidation)
• Take Profit: 3207 (clean structure + news-driven momentum)
• Optional sniper trigger: Wick rejection during NY session or USD news spike
⸻
🧠 Mindset:
This setup is time-sensitive. It’s not just about structure — it’s about who’s trapped and what the market believes post-NFP. Don’t chase candles. Wait for the manipulation to finish — then strike with precision.
“Trade Simple. Live Lavish.”
-Quil Lavish
📉 Trade Breakdown:
Gold is consolidating just beneath a 1H supply zone (3344–3356), forming the classic structure for a liquidity trap. The expectation: price fakes out to the upside, taps the supply zone, and then reverses with a clean bearish move toward 3207. This isn’t just a technical setup — it’s fundamentally fueled by a blowout NFP report.
⸻
📍 Key Technical Confluences:
• 🔸 1H supply zone: 3344–3356 (clean bearish reaction)
• 🔸 Consolidation beneath supply = energy buildup
• 🔸 Likely upside fakeout into supply → then rejection
• 🔸 Equal lows + inefficiency below = target-rich zone
• 🔸 3207 = next major demand / clean target
⸻
📰 Fundamental Fuel:
• 🔹 NFP came in strong (206K vs. expected ~190K)
• 🔹 Dollar surged, yields rebounded → gold dropped
• 🔹 Rate cut hopes fading = bullish for USD, bearish for XAU/USD
• 🔹 Market is now adjusting expectations → selling gold aggressively
• 🔹 Gold already fell post-NFP, but this pullback into supply gives sellers a second entry
⸻
📈 Execution Plan:
• Entry: After upside sweep into 3344–3356 with M15–H1 rejection
• Stop Loss: Above 3356 (supply invalidation)
• Take Profit: 3207 (clean structure + news-driven momentum)
• Optional sniper trigger: Wick rejection during NY session or USD news spike
⸻
🧠 Mindset:
This setup is time-sensitive. It’s not just about structure — it’s about who’s trapped and what the market believes post-NFP. Don’t chase candles. Wait for the manipulation to finish — then strike with precision.
“Trade Simple. Live Lavish.”
-Quil Lavish
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.