XAUUSD: Possible Pullback Before Major Reaction

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🟨 XAUUSD: Possible Pullback Before Major Reaction – Eyes on Reversal Zone

FaithDrivenTrades | July 2, 2025

Gold continues its bullish climb toward a possible intraday reversal zone (3371–3380). Technicals show a clean sweep of previous liquidity + bullish candle confirmation on H1. However, the broader fundamental backdrop now tilts toward short-term USD strength due to:

🔻 ADP NFP Miss:

ADP: 33K vs 99K forecast

Indicates weaker labor market, but Gold's reaction muted due to anticipation of Friday’s NFP and mixed inflation fears.

📊 Oil Inventory Surplus:

Crude: +3.845M vs -2.7M expected

Suggests soft demand → deflationary pressure → less urgency for Fed rate cuts.

📰 Trump Tariff Headlines:

Trump announces new 20%-40% tariffs with Vietnam.

Short-term USD pressure on trade uncertainty, but market sees longer-term USD safe-haven appeal.

📉 Fed Cuts Still Priced In (Sept, Dec):

CME Fed Futures show 2 rate cuts expected → supports bullish gold structure long-term

However, dollar’s resilience from ISM rebound + JOLTS adds near-term volatility

🧠 Market Sentiment Summary:

Macro: Mixed → USD Strengthening Short-Term

Risk: Sentiment cautious, NFP Friday key

Bias: Intraday Bearish Correction Possible, bigger trend still bullish

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