🟨 XAUUSD: Possible Pullback Before Major Reaction – Eyes on Reversal Zone
FaithDrivenTrades | July 2, 2025
Gold continues its bullish climb toward a possible intraday reversal zone (3371–3380). Technicals show a clean sweep of previous liquidity + bullish candle confirmation on H1. However, the broader fundamental backdrop now tilts toward short-term USD strength due to:
🔻 ADP NFP Miss:
ADP: 33K vs 99K forecast
Indicates weaker labor market, but Gold's reaction muted due to anticipation of Friday’s NFP and mixed inflation fears.
📊 Oil Inventory Surplus:
Crude: +3.845M vs -2.7M expected
Suggests soft demand → deflationary pressure → less urgency for Fed rate cuts.
📰 Trump Tariff Headlines:
Trump announces new 20%-40% tariffs with Vietnam.
Short-term USD pressure on trade uncertainty, but market sees longer-term USD safe-haven appeal.
📉 Fed Cuts Still Priced In (Sept, Dec):
CME Fed Futures show 2 rate cuts expected → supports bullish gold structure long-term
However, dollar’s resilience from ISM rebound + JOLTS adds near-term volatility
🧠 Market Sentiment Summary:
Macro: Mixed → USD Strengthening Short-Term
Risk: Sentiment cautious, NFP Friday key
Bias: Intraday Bearish Correction Possible, bigger trend still bullish
FaithDrivenTrades | July 2, 2025
Gold continues its bullish climb toward a possible intraday reversal zone (3371–3380). Technicals show a clean sweep of previous liquidity + bullish candle confirmation on H1. However, the broader fundamental backdrop now tilts toward short-term USD strength due to:
🔻 ADP NFP Miss:
ADP: 33K vs 99K forecast
Indicates weaker labor market, but Gold's reaction muted due to anticipation of Friday’s NFP and mixed inflation fears.
📊 Oil Inventory Surplus:
Crude: +3.845M vs -2.7M expected
Suggests soft demand → deflationary pressure → less urgency for Fed rate cuts.
📰 Trump Tariff Headlines:
Trump announces new 20%-40% tariffs with Vietnam.
Short-term USD pressure on trade uncertainty, but market sees longer-term USD safe-haven appeal.
📉 Fed Cuts Still Priced In (Sept, Dec):
CME Fed Futures show 2 rate cuts expected → supports bullish gold structure long-term
However, dollar’s resilience from ISM rebound + JOLTS adds near-term volatility
🧠 Market Sentiment Summary:
Macro: Mixed → USD Strengthening Short-Term
Risk: Sentiment cautious, NFP Friday key
Bias: Intraday Bearish Correction Possible, bigger trend still bullish
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.