Gold 
XAUUSD has experienced rapid and intense volatility but overall remains stable, as investors weigh the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran while focusing on this week’s U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting.
At the time of reporting, spot goldGOLD remains steady at $3,380/oz, down from yesterday’s (Tuesday) high of $3,403/oz.
Israel and Iran continued exchanging fire into a fifth day on Tuesday, as U.S. President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of Iran’s capital, Tehran, and cut short his trip to the G7 summit in Canada. Reports claim he had instructed the National Security Council to prepare in the Situation Room.
According to Reuters, Tehran has requested Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia to urge Trump to push Israel toward a ceasefire in exchange for Iran’s willingness to show flexibility in nuclear negotiations.
Trump’s latest post on Truth Social stated:
"I have had ZERO communication with Iran in any way, shape, or form regarding (peace talks). It’s fake news! If they want to negotiate, they know how to contact me. They should take the deal on the table—it will save many lives!!!"
Forexlive commented that anyone familiar with Trump knows he will definitely wait for Iran to approach him. Reports suggest Iran is attempting to negotiate a ceasefire, but no substantive developments have emerged yet.
Gold, a non-yielding asset, is widely seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and it tends to perform well in low interest rate environments. Therefore, fundamentally, gold should maintain a positive outlook in the current market context—even though sudden pullbacks can unsettle new traders. Personally, I’ve had many moments this year when I doubted myself and didn’t trust the uptrend—only to suffer bad outcomes… sigh.
The Fed’s interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s speech are scheduled for today (Wednesday). Traders currently expect the Fed to cut rates twice by year-end.
According to CME’s “Federal Reserve Watch” on June 18:
There is a 97.3% chance the Fed will keep rates unchanged in June, and a 2.7% chance of a 25bps rate cut.
In July, there is an 85.3% chance of holding rates steady, a 14.4% chance of a cumulative 25bps cut, and a 0.3% chance of a 50bps cut.
Technical Outlook for Gold (XAUUSD)
On the daily chart, gold has been oscillating around the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and the psychological price of $3,400—previously highlighted as key support/resistance in our earlier analysis.
However, the overall technical structure remains unchanged, with the dominant trend still bullish. The 21-day EMA continues to act as a crucial support line, and trendline (a) remains the primary trend direction. Meanwhile, the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement serves as the nearest support, with price channel (b) defining the short-term trend.
In terms of momentum, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) remains above 50, which is also acting as a support level in this case. The distance from the overbought zone suggests further upside potential remains.
Intraday, a breakout above the psychological $3,400 level would provide a bullish signal, with the next target seen around $3,435 in the short term.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: $3,371 – $3,350
Resistance: $3,400 – $3,435
XAUUSD has experienced rapid and intense volatility but overall remains stable, as investors weigh the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran while focusing on this week’s U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting.At the time of reporting, spot gold
GOLD remains steady at $3,380/oz, down from yesterday’s (Tuesday) high of $3,403/oz.Israel and Iran continued exchanging fire into a fifth day on Tuesday, as U.S. President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of Iran’s capital, Tehran, and cut short his trip to the G7 summit in Canada. Reports claim he had instructed the National Security Council to prepare in the Situation Room.
According to Reuters, Tehran has requested Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia to urge Trump to push Israel toward a ceasefire in exchange for Iran’s willingness to show flexibility in nuclear negotiations.
Trump’s latest post on Truth Social stated:
"I have had ZERO communication with Iran in any way, shape, or form regarding (peace talks). It’s fake news! If they want to negotiate, they know how to contact me. They should take the deal on the table—it will save many lives!!!"
Forexlive commented that anyone familiar with Trump knows he will definitely wait for Iran to approach him. Reports suggest Iran is attempting to negotiate a ceasefire, but no substantive developments have emerged yet.
Gold, a non-yielding asset, is widely seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and it tends to perform well in low interest rate environments. Therefore, fundamentally, gold should maintain a positive outlook in the current market context—even though sudden pullbacks can unsettle new traders. Personally, I’ve had many moments this year when I doubted myself and didn’t trust the uptrend—only to suffer bad outcomes… sigh.
The Fed’s interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s speech are scheduled for today (Wednesday). Traders currently expect the Fed to cut rates twice by year-end.
According to CME’s “Federal Reserve Watch” on June 18:
There is a 97.3% chance the Fed will keep rates unchanged in June, and a 2.7% chance of a 25bps rate cut.
In July, there is an 85.3% chance of holding rates steady, a 14.4% chance of a cumulative 25bps cut, and a 0.3% chance of a 50bps cut.
Technical Outlook for Gold (XAUUSD)
On the daily chart, gold has been oscillating around the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and the psychological price of $3,400—previously highlighted as key support/resistance in our earlier analysis.
However, the overall technical structure remains unchanged, with the dominant trend still bullish. The 21-day EMA continues to act as a crucial support line, and trendline (a) remains the primary trend direction. Meanwhile, the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement serves as the nearest support, with price channel (b) defining the short-term trend.
In terms of momentum, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) remains above 50, which is also acting as a support level in this case. The distance from the overbought zone suggests further upside potential remains.
Intraday, a breakout above the psychological $3,400 level would provide a bullish signal, with the next target seen around $3,435 in the short term.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: $3,371 – $3,350
Resistance: $3,400 – $3,435
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🪙 JOIN OUR FREE TELEGRAM GROUP 🪙
t.me/dnaprofits
Join the community group to get support and share knowledge!
️🥇 Exchange and learn market knowledge
️🥇 Support free trading signals
t.me/dnaprofits
Join the community group to get support and share knowledge!
️🥇 Exchange and learn market knowledge
️🥇 Support free trading signals
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.