1. Core driving logic: Intensified long-short game
Risk aversion supports gold prices
Geopolitical risks: Trump's tough stance on Iran (considering military action) triggers market risk aversion demand, and bargain hunting intervenes.
Uncertainty in trade negotiations: The deadline for negotiations on July 9 may change. If it is extended or broken, gold may be driven by safe-haven buying.
Fed policy and economic data suppression
Non-farm data is critical: If the US non-farm employment report on Thursday (July 4) is strong (low unemployment rate, wage growth), it will strengthen the Fed's expectations of raising interest rates, which is bearish for gold.
Other data impact:
ISM manufacturing PMI on Tuesday: If it is below 50 (shrinking), it may boost gold temporarily.
ADP employment data on Wednesday: As a non-farm outlook, if it is lower than expected, gold prices may rebound.
US dollar trend linkage
If the US dollar index strengthens due to economic data, it will suppress gold; on the contrary, if the US dollar pulls back, gold may usher in a technical rebound.
2. Key technical signals and points
1. Trend structure
Daily level:
The moving average system is in a short position (5/10/60-day moving average is downward), and the short-term weakness was confirmed after breaking the 60-day moving average last week.
Key support: 3247 (0.618 golden ratio + May 29 low), breaking the position will open the downward space to 3220-3200.
Key resistance: 3282 (last Friday's high) → 3305-3315 (moving average suppression + channel upper track).
1-hour level:
The moving average crosses and diverges, MACD runs below the zero axis, the bears dominate but are oversold (RSI is close to 30), and short-term rebound corrections need to be vigilant.
2. Long-short watershed
Short conditions: The price continues to be below 3282, and the rebound cannot break through 3305.
Bull conditions: After standing firm at 3282, break through 3305, or the 3247 support effectively forms a double bottom.
3. Today's operation strategy
1. Main strategy: rebound high
Entry area: 3305-3315 (strong resistance area), stop loss above 3320.
Target: 3270→3247, if it breaks down, look at 3220.
2. Secondary strategy: short-term long position at support level (quick in and out)
Entry point: 3260-3247 stabilizes (if it rebounds quickly and closes positive in 1 hour), stop loss below 3240.
Target: 3282-3300, close the position when encountering resistance.
3. Breakthrough follow-up strategy
Break up 3282: light position to chase long, target 3300, stop loss 3270.
Break down 3247: chase short, target 3220, stop loss 3255.
4. Risk warning and position management
Trade cautiously before non-agricultural data: market volatility may be amplified before the data is released, avoid heavy positions overnight.
Risk of sudden geopolitical conflict: If the situation between the United States and Iran escalates, gold may rise rapidly, and stop loss needs to be adjusted flexibly.
Strict stop loss discipline: single stop loss does not exceed 2% of the principal, and frequent transactions should be avoided in volatile markets.
Summary
Gold is currently in a volatile bearish pattern, but there is technical buying support near 3247. The operation is mainly high-altitude, supplemented by short-term long positions at key support levels. Focus:
Resistance: 3282→3305-3315
Support: 3260→3247→3220
Trade active
Summary of the latest trend analysis and operation suggestions for gold:
Core driving factors:
Expectations of Fed rate cuts are rising: The market's bets on at least two rate cuts in 2025 boost gold's appeal, and the weakening of the US dollar further supports gold prices.
Geopolitical and economic uncertainty: The progress of trade negotiations before the US tariff deadline (July 9) and the controversy over the Fed chairman candidate (Trump prefers a dovish candidate) have intensified the market's risk aversion demand.
Key data to be released: This week's US ADP employment and non-farm data will affect the Fed's policy expectations. If the data is weak, it may strengthen the logic of rate cuts, which is good for gold.
Key technical points:
Support level:
Short-term: US$3325-3315 (if the correction stabilizes in this area, long orders can be arranged).
Strong support: US$3260 (rapidly rebounded after bottoming out on Monday, forming a staged bottom).
Resistance level:
Short-term: US$3350-3360 (need to test the pressure in this area after breaking through 3347).
Watershed: 3370 USD (after breaking through or confirming the end of adjustment, open up the upward space).
Operation strategy:
Long opportunity:
If it falls back to 3320-3325 area and stabilizes (1-hour chart closes positive or indicator diverges), you can go long with a light position, target 3350-3360, stop loss below 3310.
Aggressive strategy: If the current price continues to sideways around 3335-3340 and does not break 3335, you can try long with a small position, enter and exit quickly.
Short opportunity:
When the 3360-3370 area is under pressure (long upper shadow appears in the 1-hour chart or MACD top divergence), go short, target 3340, stop loss above 3375.
If it falls directly below 3320 and the rebound is weak, it may fall back to the 3300 mark, but it needs to be judged in combination with the data.
Trend reversal signal:
To confirm the bottom, it needs to break through 3370 and stand firm, or fall back to 3260 without breaking to form a double bottom. There is no clear structure at present, so you need to wait patiently.
Risk warning:
Non-agricultural data disturbance: If the employment data is stronger than expected, it may suppress the expectation of interest rate cuts, causing gold to rise and fall.
Dollar trend: If the US Treasury yield falls due to risk aversion, it will indirectly benefit gold.
Position management: It is currently in the late stage of adjustment, and the volatility may be amplified. It is recommended to arrange light positions in batches and strictly stop losses.
Summary: In the short term, it is mainly long on pullbacks, focusing on the support area of 3320-3330; if it rebounds above 3360, you can try to short at high levels and wait for the trend structure to become clear. Be cautious in holding positions before the data to avoid excessive gambling.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.