Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Updated

XAU/USD: Long-Short Battle at $3,300 Threshold

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Accurate Verification of Middle East Situation Analysis
Yesterday's morning strategy focused on analyzing the authenticity of the Middle East ceasefire agreement. By deconstructing the policy logic and strategic intent behind Trump's statement, we accurately predicted that the "Israel-Iran ceasefire" had not reached an official consensus. Although logical analysis confirmed doubts about the news, gold prices still broke below the psychological integer threshold of $3,300 driven by market sentiment, highlighting the irrational feature of "emotion dominating facts" in the current market.

Escalating Trade War Risks Intensify Market Volatility
While the Middle East conflict remains unresolved, the EU issued an official statement last night, clearly stating it will launch retaliatory tariffs to force the U.S. to reach more favorable trade agreements. This move marks a further escalation of transatlantic trade friction, and market concerns about global economic growth may resurface.

Three Key Events to Monitor Closely
Gold prices are currently in a long-short stalemate at the $3,300 threshold, with the following events set to determine the short-term trend:

1.Signals of Fed Policy Pivot
Focus on the degree of rate cut expectations released in Powell's speech. A dovish signal will strengthen gold's safe-haven appeal.
2.Progress of EU-U.S. Tariff Game
Whether the EU substantially initiates counter-tariffs directly affects market assessments of global trade system stability.
3.The Legislative Process of the One Big Beautiful Bill
If the act passes smoothly this week, it may reconstruct North American trade rules—be vigilant against sudden policy shocks.

Short-Term Market Outlook
Before the above events materialize, gold is likely to oscillate within the range of $3,280-$3,350. Traders are advised to adopt a "buy low, sell high" range strategy:

- Light short positions can be taken at the upper resistance of $3,350 with a stop-loss at $3,370.
- Long positions can be initiated at the lower support of $3,280, targeting $3,320.

Note: The current market is significantly driven by news. All operations must strictly set stop-loss orders, with position sizes controlled within 15%.

I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
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Powell Delivers Rare Dovish Signal, Gold Gets Short-Term Lift
In today's remarks, Powell notably signaled policy accommodation, explicitly stating that the Fed "will take appropriate actions to sustain economic expansion," driving gold's short-term rebound to the $3,330 level. Technically, gold is now locked in a strong consolidation range of $3,300–$3,350, with the Bollinger Bands midline at $3,325 emerging as the focal point of long-short battles.
Trading Strategy Suggestions:
- Short at Resistance: Enter light short positions between $3,345–$3,350, place stop-loss at $3,360, and target a pullback to $3,320.
- Long at Support: Initiate staggered long positions in the $3,310–$3,300 support zone, set stop-loss at $3,290, and target a rally to $3,335.
- Volatility Trading: Exploit range-bound movements around the $3,330 midline, aiming for 8–12 dollar profits per trade.

While the market is absorbing Fed rate cut expectations, uncertainties persist regarding Middle East tensions and EU-U.S. tariff negotiations. Traders are advised to maintain position sizes below 5% for rolling trades, with a strict $15 stop-loss on each transaction to mitigate risks from abrupt news-driven volatility.

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