1. Current market environment
Fundamental support factors:
Expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (the market is still betting on a rate cut this year, which is good for gold).
Weak US dollar (limited rebound in the US dollar index, downward pressure on gold is controllable).
Geopolitical risks (uncertainty in the Middle East, safe-haven demand supports gold prices).
Fiscal deficit concerns (US debt problems are long-term positive for gold).
Potential bearish risks:
Strong US economic data (if employment and inflation data exceed expectations, it may weaken expectations of rate cuts).
Easing of geopolitical situation (if the conflict cools down, risk aversion will fall).
2. Key technical analysis
(1) 4-hour chart
Key support: 3280 (50% Fibonacci retracement level), 3275 (trend support).
Key resistance: 3320 (618 retracement level + mid-track pressure), 3345 (previous high).
Trend judgment:
If the closing price on Thursday stabilizes at 3280, it is still expected to bottom out and rebound, with a target of 3320→3350.
If it falls below 3275 on Thursday, it may further pull back to 3250.
(2) 1-hour chart
Short-term support: 3280 (66-day moving average), 3275 (key long defense position).
Short-term resistance: 3320 (middle track breakthrough point), 3345 (previous high).
Short-term strategy:
Long on pullback (3280-3275 area), stop loss 3265, target 3320→3350.
Short-term short on rebound (first touch 3350-3360 without breaking), stop loss 3370, target 3320-3310.
3. Today's operation suggestions
(1) Main strategy: Long on pullback
Entry point: 3280-3275 (strong support area).
Stop loss: 3265 (to prevent false breakout).
Target: 3320 (after a breakout, look at 3350-3360).
(2) Secondary strategy: short-selling on rebound (auxiliary)
Entry point: 3350-3360 (previous high pressure zone).
Stop loss: above 3370.
Target: 3320-3310 (quick in and quick out).
4. Key observation points
If it stands at 3320: a new round of rise may begin, with a target of 3350→3360.
If it falls below 3275: be alert to further correction to 3250, and adjust the strategy.
Influence of US market data: pay attention to the trend of the US dollar and sudden news (such as geopolitical situation).
Summary
Short-term trend: more volatility, 3280 is the key support, and bullish if it holds.
Trading strategy: mainly low-long (near 3280), supplemented by high-short (above 3350).
Risk control: strictly stop loss to prevent sudden market reversals.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.