Current market background
Lack of trend: gold prices have fluctuated in the recent range (3280-3400), and no unilateral trend has been formed, and the long-short game is fierce.
Risk aversion has subsided: The easing of geopolitical risks (Israel-Iran ceasefire) has weakened gold's safe-haven buying, and bulls lack the momentum to break through the 3400 mark.
Technical weakness: It fell to the 3340 support level in early Asian trading on Tuesday (although it did not fall below the actual level), and the 1-hour moving average is in a short position, indicating that short-term market sentiment is still biased towards the short side.
Key technical signals
1-hour chart
Moving average suppression: MA5/MA10 is in a short position, and 3365 points has become the first resistance level for the rebound in the Asian session. If it is under pressure at this position, it can continue to be bearish.
3340 points: If the entity falls below this level, it may accelerate downward to 3320-3300 points; if it rebounds after a false breakout, it is necessary to pay attention to the breakthrough of 3365 points.
MACD indicator: The double lines are below the zero axis, the downward momentum column shrinks but no golden cross is seen, and we need to be alert to the rebound and correction after oversold.
Daily chart
Oscillation range: 3400 points is a strong resistance level, and 3280-3300 points are key support levels. The recent rise and fall in this area shows that the pressure level of 3400 points is effective.
Insufficient momentum: Even if there is a risk aversion news stimulus (such as yesterday), the bulls have not been able to break through, reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards the high gold price.
Today's operation strategy
1. Rebound short (main idea)
Entry position:
Conservative strategy: around 3365 (1-hour MA10 moving average pressure level), stop loss 3380, target 3340→3320.
Aggressive strategy: If the Asian session continues to be under pressure at 3350, you can directly short with a light position, stop loss 3365, and target 3330.
Logic: Moving average suppression + risk aversion sentiment subsides, short after the rebound, weak trend.
2. Long on pullback (auxiliary idea)
Entry position:
3290-3280 support band (daily key position), stop loss 3270, target 3320-3340.
Rapidly dropped to 3300 without breaking: short-term long, stop loss 3290, target 3330.
Logic: A rebound at the lower edge of a large range of fluctuations requires strict stop loss.
3. Follow-up strategy after breakthrough
Break through 3365: wait and see whether it tests 3400. If it rises to 3380-3400, short orders can still be arranged.
Falling below 3340 (entity): short order target 3320-3300, stop loss 3355.
Risk warning
Powell's speech: If a dovish signal is released (for example, hinting at a rate cut), it may boost the gold price to break through 3365, and short orders need to be stopped in time.
Geopolitical reversals: If the Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement breaks down, risk aversion will quickly push up gold prices, and attention should be paid to breaking news.
Dollar trend: If the US dollar index weakens (expectations of a Fed rate cut rise), the decline in gold may be limited.
Summary
Short-term dominant factors: From a technical perspective, shorts are dominant, but the large fluctuation range has not yet been broken, so avoid chasing ups and downs.
Operation focus: short on rebound > long on pullback, pay attention to the 3365 suppression level and the 3290-3280 support level.
Key points:
Resistance level: 3365 (watershed of strength and weakness in the Asian session), 3400 (top of the range).
Support level: 3340 (psychological barrier), 3290-3280 (bullish defense line).
Trade active
Analysis of the latest trend of gold market:
Core logic: Bearishness dominates, rebound is a short-selling opportunity
Negative news suppresses bearishness
Geopolitical risks cool down: Iran-Israel ceasefire weakens safe-haven demand, and the market turns to risky assets (stock market rebounds, gold is under pressure).
Federal Reserve hawkish stance: Powell is cautious about rate cuts, the US dollar remains stable, and the confidence of gold bulls is frustrated.
Technical aspects confirm the bearish trend
Daily level: Continuous large negative lines fall, breaking the key support of 3340, and the bearish momentum is strong.
Key support: 3290 (60-day moving average), if it falls below, it will look down to 3280 or even lower.
Key resistance: 3340 (top and bottom conversion position), if it breaks through, it will turn to shock in the short term.
Today's trading strategy: short selling on rebound
Short-selling opportunity (main strategy)
Entry point: around 3340 (1-hour moving average suppression + top and bottom conversion resistance)
Stop loss: above 3350 (to prevent false breakthrough)
Target: 3310 → 3300 (if it falls below, look at 3280)
Logic:
The 1-hour moving average is in a short position, and the rebound momentum is insufficient.
Before 3340 is broken, the market is still weak and any rebound will be an opportunity to short.
Long order opportunity (short-term counter-trend, operate with caution)
Entry point: 3300-3310 (previous low support area)
Stop loss: below 3290 (abandon long orders if 60-day moving average breaks)
Target: 3330-3340 (quick in and quick out)
Logic:
There may be a technical rebound after oversold, but stop loss must be strictly enforced.
Key risk warning
If it breaks through 3340: it may turn into a shock (3350 becomes a new resistance), short positions should be cautious.
If it falls below 3290: the downside space opens, the target is 3280→3250.
Today's focus
Market sentiment: whether the geopolitical situation will change again (breaking news may reverse the trend).
Economic data: speeches by Fed officials (affecting the trend of the US dollar).
Conclusion: Gold is dominated by shorts, shorting near the rebound of 3340, strictly stop loss above 3350, and the target is 3310-3300. If it falls below 3290, short it.
Trade closed: target reached
Analysis and strategy of gold trend on June 26:
I. Analysis of core contradictions
Focus of long and short game:
Short advantage: geopolitical risk premium fades + hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve
Multiple support: technical oversold (daily RSI 28) + physical buying intervention
Key turning point: Whether 3340 breaks through or not determines the short-term direction
Institutional capital trends:
COMEX large sell orders pile up above 3350 (about 150 million US dollars)
Shanghai gold premium maintains 9-10 US dollars (Asian buying support)
II. Technical essentials analysis
Key chart signals:
4-hour chart: The descending channel is complete (upper rail 3342, lower rail 3288)
1-hour chart: Potential double bottom formed (neckline 3332, volume cooperation)
Daily chart: 5/10-day moving average dead cross angle expands (3326 vs 3349)
Key resistance and support levels:
Resistance level: 3335 (Asian session high) → 3342 (trend line) → 3352 (breakthrough level)
Support level: 3315 (intraday low) → 3295 (weekly low) → 3280 (200-day moving average)
III. Practical trading strategy
Main strategy: trend following trading
Entry trigger: 3342-3345 test short selling (4-hour trend line suppression)
Stop loss setting: 3353 (breakthrough previous high + spread buffer)
Target: 3310 → 3295 → 3280
Auxiliary Support strategy: defensive long position
Trigger condition: bullish engulfing + volume expansion below 3300
Stop loss setting: 3285 (0.5% below the previous low)
Target position: 3320-3330
IV. Risk control matrix
Breakthrough scenario response:
Break above 3352: stop loss short immediately, reverse light position to try long (target 3375)
Break below 3285: chase short position not more than 1% (target 3265)
Operational iron rule:
Strictly follow the 1:2 risk-return ratio
Single loss ≤ 0.5% of account net value
Clear 80% of position before the US market closes
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💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.