Gold (XAUUSD) has been following our Bull Cycle projection since 4 months back (August 05, see chart below) having risen an incredible +15%, from 2424 to almost 2800:
As you can see by the chart we constructed back then, despite the recent correction in November, the yellow metal is still a buy opportunity as this was only a technical pull-back based on our Bear - Bull Cycle model.
We have first come up with this technical pattern on April 04 2024 and the basis was the similarities (so far) of the July 2016 - August 2020 Bear-to-Bull Cycle with the Bear Cycle that followed the August 2020 Top and so far the current Bull Cycle.
As you can see, once the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) turned to a Support at the end of the Bear Cycle, it held up until the Bull Cycle's Top and every pull-back was a buy opportunity. More specifically, the current November correction looks very similar to the COVID flash crash on March 2020 that touched the 1W MA50 and immediately rebounded.
The key pattern here lies on the 1W RSI. As you see, once that broke above the 70.00 overbought barrier, while Gold was on the Bull Cycle's Channel Up, it started to decline inside a Channel Down. That technical Bearish Divergence (RSI Channel Down against Gold's Channel Up) affected the price on the 3rd top (Lower High), which was the Cycle's peak.
Right now it appears that the 1W RSI has (or is near) bottomed and is staring that final Bullish Leg to the Lower High that will form Gold's new Bull Cycle Top. Technically this should be after April 2025 and if it is formed again upon the completion of a +85.42% rally from the Bear Cycle's first bottom and at most the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, then we are still expecting a $3100 target.
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As you can see by the chart we constructed back then, despite the recent correction in November, the yellow metal is still a buy opportunity as this was only a technical pull-back based on our Bear - Bull Cycle model.
We have first come up with this technical pattern on April 04 2024 and the basis was the similarities (so far) of the July 2016 - August 2020 Bear-to-Bull Cycle with the Bear Cycle that followed the August 2020 Top and so far the current Bull Cycle.
As you can see, once the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) turned to a Support at the end of the Bear Cycle, it held up until the Bull Cycle's Top and every pull-back was a buy opportunity. More specifically, the current November correction looks very similar to the COVID flash crash on March 2020 that touched the 1W MA50 and immediately rebounded.
The key pattern here lies on the 1W RSI. As you see, once that broke above the 70.00 overbought barrier, while Gold was on the Bull Cycle's Channel Up, it started to decline inside a Channel Down. That technical Bearish Divergence (RSI Channel Down against Gold's Channel Up) affected the price on the 3rd top (Lower High), which was the Cycle's peak.
Right now it appears that the 1W RSI has (or is near) bottomed and is staring that final Bullish Leg to the Lower High that will form Gold's new Bull Cycle Top. Technically this should be after April 2025 and if it is formed again upon the completion of a +85.42% rally from the Bear Cycle's first bottom and at most the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, then we are still expecting a $3100 target.
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** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
👑Best Signals (Forex/Crypto+70% accuracy) & Account Management (+20% profit/month on 10k accounts)
💰Free Channel t.me/tradingshotglobal
🤵Contact info@tradingshot.com t.me/tradingshot
🔥New service: next X100 crypto GEMS!
💰Free Channel t.me/tradingshotglobal
🤵Contact info@tradingshot.com t.me/tradingshot
🔥New service: next X100 crypto GEMS!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.