My last three quarterly analysis proved correct. In the last analysis, I predicted that gold will move within a range, it did happen.
For the new quarter, here is my new analysis. Between 14 Aug 2025 to 01 Sept 2025, I expect the following:
1- Scenario 1: Bullish Trend
Since May 2025, #XAUUSD has created good bullish indications on the Daily and Weekly Charts. Therefore, it could start a new trend.
Conditions: Gold must close a strong bullish daily candle above 3452 first, then another strong daily bullish candle above 3500. The closure of a strong daily candle above 3452 should happen between 14 Aug to 01 Sept. The closure of the daily candle above 3500 is fine to happen after September 1st.
Targets: If the conditions above are met, Gold will start a new bullish trend. The targets will be: 3668, 3750, 3840 and 4,000 or 4043.
If Gold closes a strong daily candle above 3500, the ideal support lines to buy gold will be 3451, 3400, 3364, 3330 and 3300. The best support line, if Gold makes deep retracements will be 3228 and 3162.
2- Scenario 2: Expanded Range (Likely Scenario)
The range for the previous quarterly analysis was from 2956.5 to 3500, but for most of the past months since May 1st, Gold has been moving between 3262 to 3452. It is possible that Gold remains in the wider range (2956.5 to 3500), but makes wider moves. This scenario is possible because gold already reached a historic high in April and then entered a wide range, therefore it is possible to remain in the same range for the rest of the year.
This means gold could make deeper retracements into 3228, 3168, 3092, and 3024 and then go up towards, 3330, 3364 and 3452. When it reaches 3300, 3364 and 3452, then it starts new bearish moves again.
Conditions: Gold fails to close daily bullish candles above 3500 and fails to close daily bearish candles below 2956.5. The ideal condition is if gold closes a strong daily bearish candle below 3228 or 3162 between 14 Aug to 01 Sept 2025.
3- Scenario 3: Bearish Move (Unlikely Scenario):
If Gold closes a strong daily candle below 2956, then it will start a surprising bearish trend and will move towards: 2812, 2640 and 2550. This is not a likely scenario.
For the new quarter, here is my new analysis. Between 14 Aug 2025 to 01 Sept 2025, I expect the following:
1- Scenario 1: Bullish Trend
Since May 2025, #XAUUSD has created good bullish indications on the Daily and Weekly Charts. Therefore, it could start a new trend.
Conditions: Gold must close a strong bullish daily candle above 3452 first, then another strong daily bullish candle above 3500. The closure of a strong daily candle above 3452 should happen between 14 Aug to 01 Sept. The closure of the daily candle above 3500 is fine to happen after September 1st.
Targets: If the conditions above are met, Gold will start a new bullish trend. The targets will be: 3668, 3750, 3840 and 4,000 or 4043.
If Gold closes a strong daily candle above 3500, the ideal support lines to buy gold will be 3451, 3400, 3364, 3330 and 3300. The best support line, if Gold makes deep retracements will be 3228 and 3162.
2- Scenario 2: Expanded Range (Likely Scenario)
The range for the previous quarterly analysis was from 2956.5 to 3500, but for most of the past months since May 1st, Gold has been moving between 3262 to 3452. It is possible that Gold remains in the wider range (2956.5 to 3500), but makes wider moves. This scenario is possible because gold already reached a historic high in April and then entered a wide range, therefore it is possible to remain in the same range for the rest of the year.
This means gold could make deeper retracements into 3228, 3168, 3092, and 3024 and then go up towards, 3330, 3364 and 3452. When it reaches 3300, 3364 and 3452, then it starts new bearish moves again.
Conditions: Gold fails to close daily bullish candles above 3500 and fails to close daily bearish candles below 2956.5. The ideal condition is if gold closes a strong daily bearish candle below 3228 or 3162 between 14 Aug to 01 Sept 2025.
3- Scenario 3: Bearish Move (Unlikely Scenario):
If Gold closes a strong daily candle below 2956, then it will start a surprising bearish trend and will move towards: 2812, 2640 and 2550. This is not a likely scenario.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.