1. Analysis of gold news
The current market focus is as follows:
Trump tax reform is advancing & trade agreement is approaching
The tax reform was passed by the Senate, and the deadline for trade negotiations on July 9 is approaching, which has triggered a rise in risk aversion.
The Fed's attitude is subtle
Although Powell did not explicitly support the July rate cut, he emphasized that more data is needed for support, and did not rule out the possibility. This "dovish" attitude supports the medium- and long-term bullish expectations for gold.
The upcoming big non-agricultural data (July 3 US trading session)
This means that the market will quickly reflect the gap between expectations and reality in the next 24 hours, and volatility may increase.
2. Gold technical analysis
Summary of recent trends:
Gold rose strongly on Tuesday, reaching a high of $3,358;
Stagflation signals appeared on Wednesday, and the risk of chasing long positions at high levels is extremely high;
The current market bullish sentiment is high, but the technical side has entered the overbought zone, and the bullish momentum is weakening.
Key resistance/support levels:
Resistance zone: 3357-3367 USD: Near Tuesday's high, it is an important defensive position for short sellers;
Support zone: 3325-3315 USD: If it falls below, short sellers may further exert their strength, with the target directly pointing to 3300 USD.
Today's operation strategy suggestion:
Main idea: short selling on rebound
Currently in a high-level oscillation stage, it is recommended to short sell at high levels and buy at low levels, and be cautious in chasing up.
Short order strategy:
Entry position: short near $3365
Stop loss: above $3375
Target: 3326 / 3315 / 3300
Long order strategy (conservative):
If it pulls back to around $3315 and stabilizes, you can short long with a small position
Stop loss: below $3305
Target: 3326 / 3340
III. Comprehensive judgment and suggestions
Gold is currently in a news-intensive & technically overbought stage, and volatility will increase;
There is a high probability that the intraday Asian and European sessions will fluctuate weakly, waiting for the US non-agricultural guidance direction;
If the ADP and Challenger layoffs data are strong, gold will face obvious downward pressure in the short term;
Don't chase the highs, follow the trend, and risk control is the key.
📌Warm Tips:
Maintain trading discipline and do not trade with emotion;
Before the non-agricultural data, appropriately reduce positions or stop profits;
Pay more attention to the linkage changes between US bond yields and the US dollar index, which have a great impact on gold.
Trade active
July 3, 2025 Gold Non-Farm Trading Strategy:
1. Core Logic Update
Non-Farm Data Expectations
Market expectations: Non-Farm employment increased by 110,000 in June (previous value 139,000), and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.3% (previous value 4.2%).
ADP Leading Signal: ADP employment decreased by 33,000 in June (the first contraction since March 2023), strengthening the market's bet on a September rate cut (probability 75%).
Key thresholds:
<100,000: The probability of a rate cut in July soared → Gold hit 3380-3400.
>150,000: Relieve recession concerns → US dollar rebounded → Gold fell to 3300-3320.
Policy and geopolitical dynamics
Federal Reserve differences: Barkin (hawk) said "no urgency to cut interest rates", but the FHFA director accused Powell of policy fraud, exacerbating uncertainty.
Trade risks: The US-Vietnam tariff agreement was reached (20% tariff), but Trump threatened to impose tariffs on other countries (expiring on July 9), which will support the safe-haven demand for gold in the long term.
Fiscal deficit: The "US Act" bill was passed, and the ten-year deficit may increase by 3.3 trillion US dollars, which is beneficial to the anti-inflation property of gold in the long term.
2. Key technical positions:
Resistance range:
3365-3370: 50-day moving average + daily Bollinger middle track, breaking through will open up the 3380-3400 space.
3400: Psychological barrier, the target is 3450 (high point of the year) after stabilization.
Support range:
3340-3342: Early low + 1-hour EMA100, if it fails, it will look down to 3327 (yesterday's low).
3300-3295: Fibonacci 50% retracement level, the last line of defense for bulls.
3. Non-agricultural trading strategy
1. Before the data is released (light position test)
Rebound to 3362-3365:
Short, stop loss 3372, target 3345→3330 (technical callback before gaming data).
Retracing to 3340-3342 and stabilizing:
Short-term long, stop loss 3335, target 3355→3360 (low-buy stop loss needs to be strict).
Note: Volatility compression before non-agricultural, position ≤1%, avoid reverse impact of data.
2. After the data is released (trend trading)
Scenario 1: Non-agricultural <100,000 (strong bullish)
Break through 3365: chase long, stop loss 3355, target 3380→3400.
Retracing to 3340 without breaking: add long orders, stop loss 3327, target 3360→3375.
Scenario 2: Non-agricultural > 150,000 (bad news)
Falling below 3340: shorting, stop loss 3350, target 3327→3300.
Rebound 3360 blocked: shorting for the second time, stop loss 3370, target 3330.
Scenario 3: 110,000 ± 20,000 (in line with expectations)
Range oscillation: 3327-3365 high sell low buy, stop loss 10$ each.
IV. Risk control and execution points
Position management: single risk ≤ 2% of principal, avoid leverage during non-agricultural period.
Stop loss discipline: the first 30 minutes after the data is the most volatile, and the stop loss setting needs to be relaxed by 1.5 times the normal range.
Time window: the trend is clearest 2 hours after non-agricultural, avoid holding positions the next day.
V. Medium- and long-term outlook
Bullish factors:
Interest rate cut cycle: 3 interest rate cuts are expected in 2025, and the dovish Fed chairman is about to be replaced.
Debt inflation: The US fiscal deficit has expanded to a historical peak, and the demand for gold hedging has increased.
Potential risks:
The US dollar will strengthen in the short term: if the non-agricultural data is strong or the trade agreement exceeds expectations.
Geopolitical easing: If the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East is extended, it will weaken safe-haven buying.
Strategy summary: In the short term, trade with the trend of non-agricultural data, and in the medium and long term, arrange long orders in batches below 3300, with a target of 3500+.
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💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.