I. Macro-driven analysis
1️⃣ Geopolitical conflict escalates, risk aversion rises
On June 23, local time, Iran launched the twentieth round of large-scale missile and drone attacks on Israel, using the "Khyber" long-range missile to strike targets in Israel for the first time. At the same time, US submarines launched 30 "Tomahawk" cruise missiles and 12 MOP bunker-buster bombs at nuclear facilities in Iran, directly escalating the military conflict.
Iran claimed that it had released a large number of drones and warned that Israel's air defense system was close to saturation, causing the Middle East war to quickly enter a high-risk stage. The market's risk aversion sentiment has risen sharply, and gold has jumped higher during the day, continuing a wide range of fluctuations.
2️⃣ Trump's remarks disturbed market sentiment
Last Friday, Trump's statement that "the third aircraft carrier has been deployed in the Middle East" was confirmed by many parties to be exaggerated. In fact, it was only a conventional troop mobilization arrangement, which temporarily weakened the market's expectations for further escalation of the geopolitical situation, resulting in a retreat of gold's safe-haven buying in the late trading and suppressed gains.
However, with the fact of the conflict last weekend, risk aversion quickly returned, and gold formed a "high opening gap" pattern in early trading on Monday, and its risk aversion attribute was strengthened again.
3️⃣ The game between major powers intensified and medium- and long-term risks increased
The US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities are aimed at curbing its nuclear capabilities. Iran's possible retaliatory countermeasures (such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz and expanding proxy conflicts) may trigger a global energy supply chain crisis. At the same time, Russia's provision of air defense support and the appearance of Chinese reconnaissance ships in the Persian Gulf have made the geopolitical situation more complicated, providing solid support for the medium- and long-term trend of gold.
2. Technical analysis of gold
🔍 Intraday market review and trend structure
Affected by risk aversion, gold continued to open high and go low on Monday this week, which was highly similar to the trend of last Monday. The highest intraday reached around 3398, and then adjusted.
The upward surge in the early Asian session just tested the previous trend line pressure level, and the overall structure still tended to rebound weakly. Intraday operations should maintain the idea of "mainly shorting at highs".
⏱ Analysis of key technical structures
4-hour chart: The moving average system has not turned significantly, indicating that the short-term rise of gold lacks sustainability, and the risk aversion has driven the rise and then retreated quickly;
1-hour chart: After the short-term downward trend was broken, gold once rose to around 3398. The current key support level is at 3340. If it continues to break down, it will test the 3320 first-line support;
Structural form: The hourly chart forms a preliminary prototype of a "double bottom". If 3340 is not broken, a second rebound may be launched, but the upward space is still limited by the strong resistance in the 3395-3405 area.
3. Trading strategy:
🎯 Sell at high rebound and short 3390-3405. If the strong pressure level is not broken, short short. Exit after breaking 3410. Target 3366-3355
🔄 Long with light position in callback 3350-3340. Short-term long test after stabilization. Stop loss after breaking 3335. Focus on 3380-3390 in rebound
🚫 Avoid chasing up —— The current volatile market is not suitable for chasing up —— ——
📌 Operation tips:
The current volatility of gold is dominated by geopolitical risk news, which is prone to rapid rise and fall. Pay attention to controlling positions and stop loss discipline;
Pay attention to the trend of the US dollar index, the linkage of crude oil prices, and the synchronous performance of market risk aversion indexes (such as VIX) during the trading session;
If the price breaks through 3405 and stabilizes, it is necessary to adjust the thinking and follow the trend.
Trade active
Technical analysis and operation strategy of gold:
Current market background
Lack of trend market: Gold has been fluctuating in a large range recently (3280-3400), and no unilateral trend has been formed, and the long-short game is fierce.
Risk aversion sentiment has subsided: The easing of geopolitical risks (Israel-Iran ceasefire) has weakened the safe-haven buying of gold, and the bulls lack the momentum to break through the 3400 mark.
Technical weakness: The early trading fell to 3340 support (although it did not fall below the actual level), and the 1-hour moving average was in a short position, indicating that the short-term market sentiment is still biased towards the short side.
Key technical signals
1-hour chart
Moving average suppression: MA5/MA10 is in a short position, and 3365 becomes the first resistance level for the Asian session rebound. If it is under pressure at this level, it can continue to be bearish.
3340 level: If the entity falls below this level, it may accelerate downward to 3320-3300; if it rebounds after a false break, pay attention to the breakthrough of 3365.
MACD indicator: The double lines are below the zero axis, the downward momentum column is shrinking but not golden cross, and we need to be alert to the rebound correction after oversold.
Daily chart
Oscillation range: 3400 is a strong resistance, and 3280-3300 is a key support zone. It has risen and fallen many times recently, showing that the pressure of 3400 is effective.
Insufficient momentum: Even if there is risk aversion news stimulus (such as yesterday), the bulls have not been able to break through, reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards high gold prices.
Today's operation strategy
1. Rebound short (main idea)
Entry position:
Conservative strategy: around 3365 (1-hour MA10 moving average pressure), stop loss 3380, target 3340→3320.
Aggressive strategy: If the Asian session continues to be under pressure at 3350, you can directly short with a light position, stop loss 3365, and target 3330.
Logic: Moving average suppression + risk aversion subsides, short with the trend after the rebound is weak.
2. Pullback to long (auxiliary idea)
Entry position:
3290-3280 support band (daily key position), stop loss 3270, target 3320-3340.
Rapidly drop to 3300 without breaking: short-term long, stop loss 3290, target 3330.
Logic: large range oscillation lower edge game rebound, need strict stop loss.
3. Breakthrough follow-up strategy
Break above 3365: wait and see whether it tests 3400, if it rises to 3380-3400, you can still arrange short orders.
Break below 3340 (entity): short target 3320-3300, stop loss 3355.
Risk warning
Powell's speech: If a dovish signal is released (such as hinting at a rate cut), it may boost gold to break through 3365, and short orders need to stop losses in time.
Geopolitical repetition: If the Iran-Israel ceasefire breaks down, risk aversion will quickly push up gold prices, and attention should be paid to breaking news.
Dollar trend: If the US dollar index weakens (expectations of a Fed rate cut rise), the decline in gold may be limited.
Summary
Short-term dominant factors: Technically, bears are dominant, but the large range of fluctuations has not been broken, so avoid chasing ups and downs.
Operation priority: short on rebound > long on pullback, focus on 3365 suppression and 3290-3280 support.
Key points:
Resistance: 3365 (Asian session strength and weakness watershed), 3400 (range top).
Support: 3340 (psychological barrier), 3290-3280 (bullish defense line).
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💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.