Weekly XAUUSD Outlook,August 11-15, 2025

332
Hello traders ,

We step into a new week with gold holding its ground in the premium zone, standing just beneath the towering high of 3439. The weekly chart tells a story of persistent bullish momentum — each pullback over the past months has been shallow, showing that institutional buyers remain firmly in control.

The macro calendar is packed with potential catalysts. US CPI and PPI will be the main drivers, shaping inflation expectations and influencing the USD. Stronger readings may spark a controlled retracement, while softer data could be the trigger for gold to finally break through the ceiling at 3439. Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment later in the week could serve as the final push to decide direction.

📊 Weekly Structure & Key Zones

Major HTF Supply: 3350 – 3439 (full wick-to-body range of the last strong sell-side push; the only true weekly supply left).

First HTF Demand: 3290 – 3260 (breakout origin, untested bullish OB).

Deep HTF Demand: 2920 – 2880 (historical liquidity pocket, unlikely without major sentiment change).

📌 Bias: Bullish — structure, EMA flow, and momentum remain in buyers’ favor, but execution requires patience as we are already in premium pricing.

🚀 Bullish Breakout Path
If we see a decisive weekly close above 3439, gold steps into clear skies. The next reference points are:

3460 – 3475 → imbalance + inducement zone on H4/D1.

3480 – 3490 → 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the last weekly swing.
Beyond this, fresh mapping will be required on daily structure.

📉 Bearish Retracement Path
A rejection from 3439, especially if reinforced by strong USD data, could pull price back into 3290 – 3260 for a potential reload. Only a weekly close below 3260 would shift the bias toward the deeper 3100–3050 area.

🔍 Confluence & Indicators

Dynamic EMA Flow: Fully bullish, EMAs stacked in buy order.

RSI: Holding in bullish territory, no weekly divergence.

FVGs: Small unfilled gaps above 3439 act as liquidity targets.

Fibonacci: Price currently reacts near 1.272 extension; 1.618 remains above.

📌 Outlook Summary
The bulls still have the upper hand, but this is a premium zone where patience matters. The best plays will come from either a disciplined pullback into demand or a confirmed breakout toward 3480–3490.

💬 Your turn — what’s your call? Are we about to see new highs, or will gold take a breath first? Share your thoughts below.
If you enjoy these outlooks, don’t forget to like and follow for precision updates.

— GoldFxMinds

Disclosure: This analysis uses Trade Nation’s price feed and is for educational purposes only — not financial advice.

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.