Currently, global markets are fixated on three key issues: First, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the annual Jackson Hole Central Bank symposium in Wyoming has markets breathlessly awaiting signals of hawkish policy. Second, better-than-expected US PMI data has given dollar bulls a shot in the arm, offering the greenback a respite. Meanwhile, some are basking in the rosy illusions of a US-led de-escalation agreement between Russia and Ukraine, all of which is suppressing gold prices. Meanwhile, amidst the clamor of these headline events, a storm is quietly brewing on the other side of the world: the inevitable conflict between Israel and Palestine and Russia's demanding agreement. Tensions are reaching a breaking point, yet they have received scant attention. This overlooked powder keg may be brewing a potential explosion for spot gold.
On October 7, 2023, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) announced a new round of military action against Israel, firing at least 5,000 rockets from the Gaza Strip into Israel. Several militants entered southern Israeli towns and clashed with Israeli forces. That day, approximately 1,200 Israelis were killed, and approximately 250 were taken back to the Gaza Strip for detention. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared Israel a "state of war," and the Israeli army immediately launched airstrikes on the Gaza Strip, marking the beginning of a new round of conflict between Israel and Palestine. The war market has a long history.
On Friday, August 22, Xinhua News Agency reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that he had approved a plan to expand the Gaza war and agreed to begin negotiations to release the remaining hostages and end the war.
In a speech to the military's Gaza Division, Netanyahu said: "I have come here to approve the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) plan to capture Gaza City and defeat Hamas. At the same time, I direct that negotiations begin immediately on the release of all our hostages and an end to the war, on terms acceptable to Israel."
Hamas's position is fundamentally at odds with Israel's demands: The likelihood of an agreement is slim.
Netanyahu recently stated that he hopes for a one-stop deal that would require the release of all remaining hostages, the disarmament of Hamas, and the elimination of its military or ruling presence in Gaza, while maintaining Israeli security control over the territory. Israeli relatives of Gaza hostages have stated that Netanyahu's conditions for ending the war are intended to undermine a deal.
Based on Hamas's core positions and practical interests, the likelihood of it reaching an agreement with Israel is extremely low. Netanyahu's "one-stop" conditions fundamentally conflict with Hamas's survival logic and constitute a "non-negotiable red line" for Hamas. Allowing Israel to maintain security control would be seen as a "compromise." This means the probability of an agreement between the two sides is extremely low, and the risk of escalation between Israel and Palestine will only increase due to the deadlock in negotiations.
Israel's "Must-Fight Dilemma": The War Difficult to Stop Under Internal and External Pressure
Netanyahu is currently facing increasing international pressure to end the war. At the same time, the majority of Israelis are calling for a ceasefire, and reservists are exhausted by nearly two years of fighting. However, he also faces threats from far-right ministers to withdraw from his ruling coalition if he reaches an agreement.
Residential areas in Gaza City are overcrowded, and hundreds of thousands of people are believed to have taken refuge there. Palestinian health officials say 70 people have died in the past 24 hours. According to local health authorities, more than 62,000 Palestinians have died in the war, but they did not specify how many of these were combatants.
The Israeli military announced on Wednesday that it had begun military operations in the Jabaliya and Zaytun areas north of Gaza City in recent days. The military announced that it would call up 60,000 reservists and extend the service terms of another 20,000. Polls show that approximately 80% of Israelis want an end to the fighting in exchange for the release of the remaining hostages.
The military says its forces are currently focusing their attacks on the outskirts of Gaza City to consolidate operational control and destroy what it calls military infrastructure.
On Thursday, the Israeli military said it had begun contacting medical officials and international aid organizations in the Gaza Strip, asking them to prepare to transfer medical equipment from Gaza City to the southern part of the Strip. Israel also began shipping tents and shelters to southern Gaza, where residents will be relocated. However, Israel has provided few details on how the mass evacuation will be carried out.
The plan to occupy Gaza City and relocate its displaced population has alarmed Israel's Western allies, who are increasingly calling on Netanyahu to end the war. However, Israel's most important ally, the United States, has not criticized the plan. The US president posted on his Truth Social account this week: "Only after confronting Hamas and destroying them will we see the release of the remaining hostages! The sooner this happens, the greater the chance of success."
For residents of Gaza City, the impending military operation means they could be displaced again. The United Nations says approximately 1.9 million people, or 90% of Gaza's population, have been forcibly relocated during the Israeli-Palestinian war.
Israeli officials believe that at least some of the remaining hostages are being held in Gaza City, increasing their risk of death in the fighting. Hamas has previously executed hostages as Israeli forces approached. Netanyahu said on Wednesday that he had directed a shortened timetable for the capture of Gaza City.
Russia-Ukraine peace talks are demanding and difficult to reach.
According to Refinitiv, three sources familiar with the thinking of senior Kremlin officials told Reuters on Friday (August 22) that Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded that Ukraine abandon its entire eastern Donbas region and its NATO ambitions, maintain a neutral stance and avoid joining any military alliance, and prohibit Western troops from entering Ukraine. This runs counter to Ukraine's core demands for active NATO membership and territorial integrity.
Market Impact
The unexpectedly strong US PMI data gave the US dollar a boost, exacerbating concerns about a resurgence in inflation and gradually reducing market expectations for a significant Federal Reserve rate cut. The CMEFedWatch tool shows that the market is pricing in a 75% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, down from 92% a week ago. This boosted the US dollar index, suppressing gold prices and making it less attractive to overseas buyers.
Against this backdrop, both the Russia-Ukraine agreement and the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations touch upon each other's core interests and negotiating bottom lines, leaving little room for negotiation and threatening an escalation of conflict. Meanwhile, gold, which had been suppressed, is now seeing attractive prices, creating excellent entry opportunities behind the scenes.
Technically, 3326, the opening price on July 30, serves as a key reference point. Actively look for opportunities to enter long positions around this level. This level is the breakout level of the Morning Star pattern formed on August 1.
Currently, gold prices are supported by the weekly X-line and the 20-week moving average. On the daily chart, there is also support from the 100-day moving average and the recent rising channel line, around 3316. The first resistance level is 3348, the confluence of Wednesday's high and the 20- and 50-day moving averages.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLDZ2025 XAUUSD
On October 7, 2023, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) announced a new round of military action against Israel, firing at least 5,000 rockets from the Gaza Strip into Israel. Several militants entered southern Israeli towns and clashed with Israeli forces. That day, approximately 1,200 Israelis were killed, and approximately 250 were taken back to the Gaza Strip for detention. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared Israel a "state of war," and the Israeli army immediately launched airstrikes on the Gaza Strip, marking the beginning of a new round of conflict between Israel and Palestine. The war market has a long history.
On Friday, August 22, Xinhua News Agency reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that he had approved a plan to expand the Gaza war and agreed to begin negotiations to release the remaining hostages and end the war.
In a speech to the military's Gaza Division, Netanyahu said: "I have come here to approve the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) plan to capture Gaza City and defeat Hamas. At the same time, I direct that negotiations begin immediately on the release of all our hostages and an end to the war, on terms acceptable to Israel."
Hamas's position is fundamentally at odds with Israel's demands: The likelihood of an agreement is slim.
Netanyahu recently stated that he hopes for a one-stop deal that would require the release of all remaining hostages, the disarmament of Hamas, and the elimination of its military or ruling presence in Gaza, while maintaining Israeli security control over the territory. Israeli relatives of Gaza hostages have stated that Netanyahu's conditions for ending the war are intended to undermine a deal.
Based on Hamas's core positions and practical interests, the likelihood of it reaching an agreement with Israel is extremely low. Netanyahu's "one-stop" conditions fundamentally conflict with Hamas's survival logic and constitute a "non-negotiable red line" for Hamas. Allowing Israel to maintain security control would be seen as a "compromise." This means the probability of an agreement between the two sides is extremely low, and the risk of escalation between Israel and Palestine will only increase due to the deadlock in negotiations.
Israel's "Must-Fight Dilemma": The War Difficult to Stop Under Internal and External Pressure
Netanyahu is currently facing increasing international pressure to end the war. At the same time, the majority of Israelis are calling for a ceasefire, and reservists are exhausted by nearly two years of fighting. However, he also faces threats from far-right ministers to withdraw from his ruling coalition if he reaches an agreement.
Residential areas in Gaza City are overcrowded, and hundreds of thousands of people are believed to have taken refuge there. Palestinian health officials say 70 people have died in the past 24 hours. According to local health authorities, more than 62,000 Palestinians have died in the war, but they did not specify how many of these were combatants.
The Israeli military announced on Wednesday that it had begun military operations in the Jabaliya and Zaytun areas north of Gaza City in recent days. The military announced that it would call up 60,000 reservists and extend the service terms of another 20,000. Polls show that approximately 80% of Israelis want an end to the fighting in exchange for the release of the remaining hostages.
The military says its forces are currently focusing their attacks on the outskirts of Gaza City to consolidate operational control and destroy what it calls military infrastructure.
On Thursday, the Israeli military said it had begun contacting medical officials and international aid organizations in the Gaza Strip, asking them to prepare to transfer medical equipment from Gaza City to the southern part of the Strip. Israel also began shipping tents and shelters to southern Gaza, where residents will be relocated. However, Israel has provided few details on how the mass evacuation will be carried out.
The plan to occupy Gaza City and relocate its displaced population has alarmed Israel's Western allies, who are increasingly calling on Netanyahu to end the war. However, Israel's most important ally, the United States, has not criticized the plan. The US president posted on his Truth Social account this week: "Only after confronting Hamas and destroying them will we see the release of the remaining hostages! The sooner this happens, the greater the chance of success."
For residents of Gaza City, the impending military operation means they could be displaced again. The United Nations says approximately 1.9 million people, or 90% of Gaza's population, have been forcibly relocated during the Israeli-Palestinian war.
Israeli officials believe that at least some of the remaining hostages are being held in Gaza City, increasing their risk of death in the fighting. Hamas has previously executed hostages as Israeli forces approached. Netanyahu said on Wednesday that he had directed a shortened timetable for the capture of Gaza City.
Russia-Ukraine peace talks are demanding and difficult to reach.
According to Refinitiv, three sources familiar with the thinking of senior Kremlin officials told Reuters on Friday (August 22) that Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded that Ukraine abandon its entire eastern Donbas region and its NATO ambitions, maintain a neutral stance and avoid joining any military alliance, and prohibit Western troops from entering Ukraine. This runs counter to Ukraine's core demands for active NATO membership and territorial integrity.
Market Impact
The unexpectedly strong US PMI data gave the US dollar a boost, exacerbating concerns about a resurgence in inflation and gradually reducing market expectations for a significant Federal Reserve rate cut. The CMEFedWatch tool shows that the market is pricing in a 75% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, down from 92% a week ago. This boosted the US dollar index, suppressing gold prices and making it less attractive to overseas buyers.
Against this backdrop, both the Russia-Ukraine agreement and the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations touch upon each other's core interests and negotiating bottom lines, leaving little room for negotiation and threatening an escalation of conflict. Meanwhile, gold, which had been suppressed, is now seeing attractive prices, creating excellent entry opportunities behind the scenes.
Technically, 3326, the opening price on July 30, serves as a key reference point. Actively look for opportunities to enter long positions around this level. This level is the breakout level of the Morning Star pattern formed on August 1.
Currently, gold prices are supported by the weekly X-line and the 20-week moving average. On the daily chart, there is also support from the 100-day moving average and the recent rising channel line, around 3316. The first resistance level is 3348, the confluence of Wednesday's high and the 20- and 50-day moving averages.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLDZ2025 XAUUSD Trade active
Everything is just as Charlie predicted. Gold surged strongly last Friday, breaking through the critical resistance zone of 3350-3360, soaring 57 points in a single day to a high of 3378. Charlie's contrarian, proactive long position at 3325 perfectly captured this rally. If you're willing to talk to me, and if I can help you escape this predicament, then please reach out to Charlie. I look forward to becoming friends with you.Note
Everything is just as Charlie predicted. Gold surged strongly last Friday, breaking through the critical resistance zone of 3350-3360, soaring 57 points in a single day to a high of 3378. Charlie's contrarian, proactive long position at 3325 perfectly captured this rally. If you're willing to talk to me, and if I can help you escape this predicament, then please reach out to Charlie. I look forward to becoming friends with you.
Real-time strategies are like a beacon guiding your investment path. The market will never disappoint those who persevere and explore wisely....🚀🚀VIP Channel t.me/EagleEyePrecisionAnalysis
👉Exclusive address t.me/Eagle_PreciseAnalysis
👉Exclusive address t.me/Eagle_PreciseAnalysis
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Real-time strategies are like a beacon guiding your investment path. The market will never disappoint those who persevere and explore wisely....🚀🚀VIP Channel t.me/EagleEyePrecisionAnalysis
👉Exclusive address t.me/Eagle_PreciseAnalysis
👉Exclusive address t.me/Eagle_PreciseAnalysis
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.